Should I stay or should I go?

That is the dilemma facing United Bermuda Party MPs who fear their party can never win again but who have yet to be convinced that a new party can survive the PLP electoral machine.

So what to do when every option seems fraught with risk?

Each one of the 14 MPs is acutely aware they were elected under the UBP banner, however much some wish to claim that playing down overt party connections helped get them elected.

They all know the UBP was once an election-winning machine which cranked out poll win after poll win for 30 years.

And yet the failure to gain any ground whatsoever in the December election has again sparked talk that radical change is needed. New MP Donte Hunt believes the UBP has "maxed out" its vote in its current incarnation and radical change is needed while former leader Wayne Furbert said the UBP's existence only served to harden Bermuda's racial divide.

However one reforming UBP MP told this paper the UBP wasn't going to disintegrate any time soon and Mr. Furbert's statement had hardened the resolve of the old guard.

These are just some of the viewpoints in the rolling public debate that is today's United Bermuda Party which has had four different leaders in two years and could well be dying a death by a thousand cuts.

However a long goodbye will reduce the time any new entity has to create an election-winning organisation on the ground, something which might already be hampered by the lack of corporate donations now enjoyed by the mainstream parties.

Already some UBP MPs have stopped recruiting because they believe the party is doomed.

One senior UBP MP said 2008 was a critical year for the party and the debate would continue.

"When a party loses an election there are as many different opinions as to why as there are members."But what divides the 14 is tactics, not ideology. Six appear to want radical change, though even within that group there are different opinions on whether the UBPcan be revived, but some are at least willing to give it a go.Meanwhile eight MPs currently believe UBP banner must remain but are happy to examine various options for reinventing the formula. As ever in Bermuda politics, race seems to be at the heart of the problem. The party endured former members switching to the PLPafter alleging a white elite still ran the UBP and at the election the party was buried by the race issue. Asked if the next election could be any different for the UBPMPMark Pettingill said:"It depends in my view on who the key players are in the UBP."Mr. Pettingill says he was able to pick up significant black support in his seat as were other MPs.Former party chairman and reformist MP Shawn Crockwell said if more blacks could come into the party it could indicate the UBP could be saved. "If we continue to only attract only middle-aged whites then clearly we are having a serious issue of disconnect with the community. That is the political reality. Wayne may be right that it's not solvable, but we at least owe those who voted for us and those who sacrificed years in the party before us to at least try."But he said first the party had to reform to make itself more attractive to potential new recruits. Mr. Crockwell is optimistic it can be done."However the problem right now is bringing the various factions together to work to a common goal. If we can't get the conservative group to come to a middle ground with the more reformist group then we are not going to achieve it."If we were to break away and start something without properly doing the homework and making the necessary preparations that would be a disservice to the country. I think we have to remain a strong democracy. You have to understand we were elected as United Bermuda Party candidates. We have obligations to our constituencies ¿ we have to include people in the process."I have people who supported me and worked hard for me under the banner of the United Bermuda Party. We have to put the 47 percent first, if we are unsuccessful we have to move on to the next stage.""There are a lot of intricacies, it is not just a matter of emotionally going off. We are being restrained, restraint is good. But we are also being forceful in saying to the leader and party if we don't aggressively make changes then we are going to have to re-evaluate our position."But basing your core vote on white support when that demographic is on the decline can seem foolhardy when you are up against a party able to pull the majority of votes from Bermuda's largest racial group.Former leader of the now defunct National Liberal Party Charles Jeffers said the UBP would always be distrusted by a segment of the population as it was seen as the establishment party but still its members kept plugging on. "There is a saying, there are none so blind as those who shall not see."Mr. Jeffers said people were glad the PLP had won the 2007 election but were not happy the UBP was so weak because it meant Government didn't have to listen to the people because of its secure grip on power. "But I think now the PLPhave had their opportunity and blacks are saying, we have tried them both, we are not happy with either really." Mr. Jeffers believes a breakaway party with Mr.Furbert and some of the new MPs could garner support by anything deemed white influenced would fail. Below we look at some of the factors in the minds of UBP members as they make their choice.Lessons from home the Bermuda Democratic Party and the National Liberal PartyThe history of breakaway parties in Bermuda is not a promising one for those wishing to follow suit. The Bermuda Democratic Party was formed from dissidents from the Opposition Progressive Labour Party in March 1967 and actually had more MPs in the House than the PLP at that time. At the watershed general election the following year it fielded 18 candidates who all lost as the UBPpicked up 30 seats and the PLPtook the remaining 10.The National Liberal Party was formed by four moderate MPs after they were expelled from the PLPin late 1984 butreturned just two MPs at the 1985 election as John Swan picked up 31 of the 40 seats. At the 1989 election the NLP was reduced to one MP while the party was wiped out in the 1993 election and would never again win a seat before fizzling out about a decade later.Many an Opposition MP will quote the NLP as a cautionary tale but for former party leader Charles Jeffers, the historical parallels with the situation today's Opposition finds itself in are not there.He explained:"TheNLPnever started out to be the NLP. Approximately six months after the MPs were booted out and also Cal Smith andRoger Russell, those of us sympathetic to them didn't give up our membership."We spent six months holding meetings trying to get a special delegates conference called to get the guys reinstated." Mr. Jeffers, at that time on the PLP's Central Committee, added:"We had four sitting MPs who wanted to continue their service to Bermuda, the PLP said 'we don't want you', the only way we felt to have even a chance of winning those seats was to form a party. "It's a very different scenario. People said we split and started a party. They don't understand the history, they didn't know we were forced to start a party, that was not our aim."People shouldn't confuse the recent re-election of the PLP, with a slightly increased share of the popular vote, as a ringing endorsement, adds Mr. Jeffers. "What it means is people don't have a real choice. A real choice is not the UBP. A real choice is another party of the people. The NLP was a party before its time. If the NLP were alive today we would probably be doing very well, thank you."Lessons from abroad the end of the UBP in the BahamasBermuda isn't the only island where an establishment party has had to consider disbanding after believing it would never again return to power. That scenario played out in the Bahamas where for decades, the white-dominated United Bahamian Party (UBP) ruled while a group of influential white merchants, known as the "Bay Street Boys", dominated the local economy in a nation where blacks are 85 percent of the population and whites just 12 percent. In 1953, Bahamians dissatisfied with UBP rule formed the opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP). Under the leadership of Lynden Pindling, the PLP won government in 1967 and led the Bahamas to full independence in 1973.A coalition of PLP dissidents and former UBP members formed the Free National Movement (FNM) in 1971. Former PLP cabinet minister and member of Parliament Hubert Ingraham became leader of the FNM in 1990 and under his leadership, the FNM won control of the government from the PLP in the August 1992 general elections.The PLP regained power in 2002 after Ingraham retired, but the FNM, with Ingraham back as leader, returned to government by capturing 23 of the 41 seats in the House of Assembly at the May 2007 election. Mr. Jeffers believes the Bahamas showed the way by folding the establishment United Bahamian Party and replacing it with the FNM which picked up support from former UBP supporters as well as from the ruling Progressive Liberal Party. "When they looked they had a party. And now in the Bahamas people feel comfortable with supporting either party because they feel both are based in the roots of the Bahamas."But the Bahamas example might not be that enticing for UBPMPs here they will note that the FNM waited more than 20 years before it won power but it was dumped from office in half that time.The Obama factorThe moribund nature of Bermuda's politics, stuck in a racial time warp, with elections that produce exactly the same results is made more depressing when compared to the new energy across the Atlantic. The Barack Obama phenomenon has ignited young voters in what appears to be a broad-based coalition of support.With substantial financial backing from small donors, Obama appears to be taking on the Clinton political machine and also transcending some of the racial shackles opponents from all sides have tried to pin on him with a message of unity and hope. For UBP politicians who are continually failing with the same message, Obama is an intriguing figure but most people would agree that such figures are born not made ¿ a charismatic saviour won't come along just because a party really wants one. Does the UBP have an Obama figure within its ranks? Opinions differ. Trevor Moniz, when pushed, said new MP Shawn Crockwell could be the Opposition's closest thing to Obama but he's still fresh in the job and finding his feet in Parliament. Khalid Wasi, who led the short-lived All Bermuda Congress movement which argued the UBP's time was up, argues the UBP will never find its Obama unless people like Mr. Moniz step down and let new blood in. Mr. Wasi said:"He can return later in a general election but he needs to show the way, step down and let a new breed and the very newness that he talks about unfold. Perhaps that's the way a Barack Obama gets in."One UBPMP told this paper that the party was about to start reaching out to students and young professionals not by preaching at them but asking them what they wanted for the country.The MPsaid:"Barack Obama's movement is being pushed by the young people, it's not Barack. They have bought into a vision.We have to create a vision that can excite and motivate young people and get them to be the engine to propel it."I think that is the only way we can do it. But unfortunately a lot of young people don't want to get involved with the UBP or the PLP, so maybe you need a fresh entity. But if we can reform from within and try to make something new, maybe we can do it."For Mr. Jeffers, an articulate well-liked leader is an obvious asset to any political party. But he pointed out the UBP had managed to win with some less than charismatic Premiers before leaning on John Swan who staved off the PLP advance for several elections.Mr. Jeffers said the UBP was now full of novices and elder statesmen. "I would not want the job of trying to pick a leader, not as it stands."Nevertheless he said reformers needed to "get on with what they need to do and let it play out".He added: "If you are coming up with something new you have to have a strong leader, you can't be wishy, washy. But that is not the big issue right now the big issue is setting the foundation."The Ewart Brown factorPremier Dr. Ewart Brown looms large in the thoughts of the 14 Opposition MPs as they ponder their future. While some admire his charisma, all agree he is a divisive figure who must not be handed any more power.Dr. Brown has declared his wish to destroy the UBP and there is a marked reluctance to hand him that satisfaction from UBPMPs.But more significantly MPs fear a botched break-up will spark a snap election and bury both the new party and the old UBPin a PLPlandslide. One UBPMP said:"If we do an irrational break and the Premier calls an election within six months and wins 30 seats then we are going to be known as the group that destroyed the Country. "We are all cognizant of what may happen and we certainly don't want to effect democracy in this country. I don't want to see this country go Independent just because we handed Ewart Brown almost unlimited power."The MP said if the PLP was led by Paula Cox the reformers could afford to take a risk."The reason why there is this sense of urgency is because we believe the Brown administration has an agenda that we don't think is good for the Country. They think independence is the best way to go. We are concerned about how the Country has been governed in the past couple of years. If it was still Alex Scott there we wouldn't be having this conversation.*t(0,0," ")"Dr. Brown has been able to paint us as the villain in the political realm. We have the albatross around our necks. He's been disciplined and very consistent, they know what works and they stick to it and its given him great results."*t(0,0," ")However new UBPMP Mark Pettingill played down the Brown factor. "I don't honestly think the Premier is a factor as to what's going on in the UBP, not from my standpoint."*t(0,0," ")Mr. Jeffers believes that if the break up is handled badly it meant that "Dr. Brown can do whatever he wants to do without fear or favour".*t(0,0," ")But he said sitting tight wasn't an option either.*t(0,0," ")"They now have to do something, if they sit around doing nothing and stay in and have this war going for another year or so then watch out."*t(0,0," ")Mr. Jeffers said the Premier was waiting for another opportunity to get another mandate and pick up a few more seats but he said even Dr. Brown wasn't unassailable.*t(0,0," ")"My gut feeling is it's only a matter of time before a change takes place from both within the Government and Opposition. Ibelieve there are a lot of honest, hardworking people in the PLP who feel uncomfortable about some of the things that are going on. *t(0,0," ")"If the Opposition doesn't become strong enough then the biggest opposition might be within the PLP itself because there will be a time when people say enough is enough, they won't leave the party. They will just change it. I really believe the majority of people in this country are really concerned about Bermuda."*C*t(0,0," ")BOPTIONS*J*t(0,0," ")BIWith a variety ofB Bexternal and internal forces putting the squeeze on the UBP, what are its options?$*t(0,0," ")BStay united$*t(0,0," ")Most Opposition parties around the world keep going, often against the odds and many across the Bermuda political spectrum believe the UBP needs to stick to its guns. *t(0,0," ")No one likes a quitter and even long-standing popular Governments are often eventually undone either by their own excesses or by what former British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan lamented as "events, Dear Boy, events". *t(0,0," ")With 47 percent of the vote the UBP in 2007 has more support than many governing parties around the world. Britain's Labour Party won the 2005 election with just 35.3 percent of the vote against a split Opposition. While the UBP slipped back slightly in 2007, the statistics show that if everyone voted the same next time around apart from 148 voters who swapped from the PLP to the UBP in several key seats then the UBP would be in power.*t(0,0," ")A new party will face a massive uphill struggle against a well-honed PLPelectoral machine which boasts all the latest campaigning technology and was able to pull out all the stops to romp home in December. *p(0,12,0,10.6,0,0,g)*t(0,0," ")But the pessimists believe a PLP led by Paula Cox could prove even more popular and send the UBP into terminal decline at the next election unless a radically new Opposition is formed to give the PLP a run for its money without having to fight with one hand tied behind its back because of race.B*t(0,0," ")$t5A split that pits the new party against the UBP*t(0,0," ")*t(0,0," ")t5One of the key factors putting the breaks on a split with UBP is the fear that further seats will surely be lost if the old guard decide to stand and fight.*t(0,0," ")Many of those in the 'stay-as-we-are' wing are ensconced in safe seats Grant Gibbons, Patricia Gordon-Pamplin, Cole Simons Jon Brunson, Louise Jackson and John Barritt and feel no need to back down. *t(0,0," ")However some pundits feel the new entity has a better chance of proving its independence if it takes on its old friends. *t(0,0," ")The argument runs that the PLPwill be itching to brand the new entity simply as the UBPunder a new name.*t(0,0," ")But that labelling will be seen as illogical if the old UBPis still up and fighting. This way the new party can reassure non-voters and former PLP voters they aren't being sold old wine in new bottles. *t(0,0," ")Mr. Jeffers said: "I believe there are at least seven or eight MPs in the UBP who feel that the party is over, however it needed them to join together and say OK, let's resign.*t(0,0," ")"There is a so much disarray unless they come up with a plan to leave the UBP and let it die. A rose by any other name is still a rose. *t(0,0," ")"If you want to rename it, it is still going to smell the same, look the same, I don't care what you do with it. There has to be a definite clean break. If not, it is not going to work."*t(0,0," ")While the Opposition fears a slip will lead to a drubbing at a snap election Mr. Jeffers said they weren't looking at the possibilities to be gained.*t(0,0," ")"How about those people who didn't vote or who voted PLP simply because they didn't want to vote UBP?"*t(0,0," ")MPs favouring the split also calculate they can bring over PLP parliamentarians but whether any would be prepared to take the derision from former colleagues and cross the floor to take part in a risky new venture remains to be seen. *t(0,0," ")However it seems more likely the new group may be able to produce well-known former PLPsupporters who have grown disillusioned with the party's performance in power.*t(0,0," ")BA split $B but a decision not to fight safe seats*t(0,0," ")$Fledgeling and even established parties are not always expected to fight every seat.*t(0,0," ")Even in 1998, when the PLP was swept to power in the old dual-seat system, it did not putting up two candidates in every seat and instead put up just one in some UBP strongholds. *t(0,0," ")A breakaway party could also be tempted to concentrate on retaining its MPs and fighting a handful of marginal seats rather than trying to take on the UBP in Paget and the PLP in Sandys.*t(0,0," ")It will hope that tactic can lead it to at least hold its own, become the official Opposition and help convince the UBP it needs to dissolve. *t(0,0," ")The risk is the strategy could keep the old UBP going beyond its natural life span. And the tactic could fall prey to a PLPspin-machine labelling it a backroom deal to help keep UBP MPs in the House.*t(0,0," ")To counter that the new party will need to convince the Country that it is the true underdog, which needs to carefully marshall limited resources, and the PLP has become the new establishment party.*t(0,0," ")BFinance and organisation for a new party$*t(0,0," ")Tactically the new entity could make a virtue of its poverty and launch an Obama-style grass roots campaign which sought buy-in with small donations from hundreds of ordinary voters rather than trying to seek a few large sums from the rich. *t(0,0," ")As an entity wanting to hammer home its differences from the establishment-orientated UBP it has tactical merit.*t(0,0," ")But it will require confidence that the public is willing to put its money behind the new group, ignore the social pressures and get the bandwagon rolling. *t(0,0," ")If voters fail to get on board in significant numbers it could indicate the new party is dead in the water before it even got going.