Swan's Cabinet indicates the dilemma faced by the United Bermuda Party over Independence. Basically, the UBP is split between those members, most of whom appear to be black, who agree with the Premier that Independence is vital to Bermuda's future and those members to whom the idea of Independence is total anathema. There does not appear to be very many people in the middle.

There is not a great deal of voter joy for the Progressive Labour Party in this split over Independence although there may be some pleasure in watching the UBP struggle. While the PLP parliamentary group may be closer to unity than the UBP, their voters are not. As nearly as this newspaper can tell, only about a third of the voting public is in favour of Independence and as much as 60 percent may well be solidly against Independence with some people undecided but uncomfortable with the unknowns of Independence. We think our assumptions are correct today but the figures would doubtless change as Bermuda debates the pros and cons of going it alone.

The public's thinking places both political parties in a difficult position.

While there are strong supporters of Independence they appear to be largely politicians or the politically inclined. There is no definable public groundswell of support for Independence and no strong and well supported demand for Independence. Indeed, while the politicians bring the issue to the fore quite regularly, the public in favour of Independence tends not to be strongly motivated. However, the public opposed to Independence is deeply concerned and that concern is evidenced by Ann Cartwright DeCouto.

We think that is why Independence has never been raised as an election issue and that the politicians know that a campaign including Independence or income tax would mean defeat at the polls. It is important to remember that the PLP as a party clearly supports Independence but has never raised it at an election. Those who openly support Independence are often also PLP supporters but they do not urge it on the PLP as an election issue because they recognise the voting dangers. It does seem somehow unfair that the politicians ran for office last September-October with a deadly hush surrounding Independence only to raise the issue these few short months later.

However, the PLP is now in the happy situation of watching the UBP beat itself with the issue. While Bermuda has its plate very full with the uncertainties of bases closing, the revision of the education system, declining competitiveness as a tourist resort and a complex racial debate, the Independence issue has been raised as well. It has been raised despite the uncertainty and lack of any information on how international companies will feel about locating here.

Certainly the timing is very strange and ill-advised. We think it is a result of shock inside the hierarchy of the UBP over the breathtakingly close election result. The UBP leadership, probably with Premier Sir John Swan at the forefront, has decided that to continue its success the UBP needs to lead Bermuda to Independence. We think it is ironic that those who oppose Independence will be placed in an impossible position because they are more often than not the staunchest of the UBP supporters.

Those hard-core UBP supporters who might now be tempted to rush out and revive and expand the Concerned Bermudians group are in a no-win situation. They will have to face the fact that they might force their leadership away from Independence but cause their party to lose the next election.