A 25 percent jump in air arrivals for the first three months of the year was a welcome morale booster to the Hon. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge.

It also did a power of good for his credentials as a tourism southsayer.

His prediction of a 10 percent rise in 1994 over last year looked far less now like a case of wishful thinking.

And while champagne corks may not be popping down at the Tourism Department, there is certainly a fizz in the air.

Deprived of good news for so long, tourism chiefs have also been buoyed by: Healthy advance bookings for cruise ships, signalling another bumper year; A St. George's-only cruise liner, Royal Majesty ; Success in the fight against Bermuda's image of being cold during winter; An erosion of the belief Bermuda is pricey; British Airways putting on a fourth summer flight to the Island; and The pace of America's economic revival.

Do the statistics lie, however? Or is Bermuda's recovery really gaining impressive momentum? Tourism experts agree Bermuda is entering a critical few months, which should answer the questions.

Typically, Mr. Woolridge prefers to remain upbeat.

"I am always very positive. We are now on track for my prediction. We certainly have made a pretty good start,'' he said.

Mr. Woolridge had no doubt the "temperature guarantee'' scheme had played a part in the tourism resurgence.

Under the January-March programme, certain hotels and stores offer 20 percent discounts when the temperature fails to hit 68 degrees.

In the three months this year the temperature failed to meet the target just 11 days.

Crucially, this tourism carrot has prompted a burst of good publicity abroad, with prestige papers and magazines giving the Island a plug.

"I think it has worked well for us, and we are in a no lose situation,'' he said. "The programme tells people Bermuda has only two seasons -- spring and summer.'' Mr. Woolridge also doffed his hat to a tough overseas advertising campaign.

"We have promoted very effectively golf, tennis and other sporting activities.'' Tourism's North American sales director Mr. Paul Zar admitted he had been taken aback by the boost in visitors.

"I would say I have been pleasantly surprised, although not shocked.'' Mr. Zar said Bermuda was reaping rich rewards of keeping a cool head during the recession.

It had resisted the temptation to engage in an orgy of price-slashing, unlike other destinations.

Instead, prices had been held down while quality was maintained, he stressed.

"We haven't compromised. We are doing it right.'' He added: "Bermuda seems to have come back into the price-value picture.'' This meant the Island now offered greater value for money than rival resorts.

"Bermuda seems to be a much more attractive travel option now than it has been for a while. We have, of course, a loyal following. I think there has been a lot of pent-up demand to visit Bermuda.

"Travel agents are reporting a significant increase in Bermuda business, with people making genuine inquiries about going there.'' Mr. Zar said the first quarter of the year had been "wonderful''.

Some 63,460 people have flocked to Bermuda this year -- 25.3 percent up on the same period in 1993.

Mr. Zar said the statistics boded well for the rest of 1994.

Generally momentum continued after a good start to a year, he added.

But he added a cautionary note: "I say all this with a little bit of hesitation. I don't want to jinx us.'' Sonesta Beach's manager Mr. David Boyd said the hotel had experienced a disappointing winter.

But this was because the hotel had been closed in past winters. It took time to win back guests.

April bookings, however, were well ahead of last year, said Mr. Boyd.

"The trend looks like it will continue right through to October.'' Mr. Boyd was hopeful of 80 percent-plus occupancy rates between April and the end of the year.

He pointed to one reason why there had been a surge in visitors.

Hotels were offering special offers, including low room rates.

"We are all working hard in terms of advertising through our operators and wholesalers.'' He added trade shows had also helped give Bermuda a plug.

With the cruise season about to get start, hopes are high among tourism chiefs of a bumper year.

There will be 26 more cruise ship visits than last year.

And Bermuda is expected to play host to a record number of passengers -- beating or matching last year's tally of 158,000.

A big reason is the end of May arrival of Royal Majesty , which will come from Boston.

The four other ships will be: Royal Caribbean Cruise Line's Song of America ; Kloster Cruises' Dreamward ; and Celebrity Cruises' Meridian and Horizon .

St. George's Mayor the Wor. Henry Hayward understood cruise ship bookings were "fairly healthy''.

"Last year numbers were quite high with ships running to capacity or over capacity.

"We should be up to where we were last year. Everybody is looking forward to a good season.'' Public relations director of Royal Caribbean Cruise Line Mr. Lloyd Axelrod was similarly confident.

"Bermuda is a very popular destination,'' he said.

He pointed out the cruise line had increased the size of Song of America .

This reflected growing demand to come to Bermuda.

Mr. David Boyd.

The Hon. C.V. Woolridge.

BIG SHIP -- The Song of America , seen sailing out of the Island at the end of last year's cruise ship season, has been expanded for this year -- which is expected to see more cruise passengers than ever before.