to a British statesman.

But when Finance Minister Grant Gibbons is the Governmental first mate to Premier David Saul, a leak is something which happens to other vessels.

For -- less than a week to Budget day -- Dr. Gibbons is anything but loose- lipped over the financial course he is plotting for the coming financial year But it is an open secret that the Budget is unlikely to contain any major shocks -- and that moves are likely to be made to ease the pressure on both the retail trade and the closely-linked tourism industry.

And Government are unlikely to want any controversies in what may even be an election year.

Dr. Gibbons said he was always conscious that Budgets were not just about dull columns of figures and balancing the books, but about people.

He explained: "What we are talking about is people because a very high proportion of expenditure comes down to expenditure on people -- education, social services and we are a heavy service provider in terms of tourism and international business.'' He added: "There are always issues which are important. Tourism is a very important issue for the economy right now. In international business, the news has been positive and we hope it will continue to be positive.

"What we have is one sector of the economy is going quite well, which gives us a breathing space to make adjustments on the other side, which is more tourism-related.'' Dr. Gibbons -- due to present his second Budget next week -- said that planning for a Budget started almost as soon as the dust had settled from the last one.

He explained the Budget was planned on a six-year model -- one year back and five forward.

And he said: "Last year's Budget in some respects is a basis for going forward. But at the same time, there are many new issues every year.

"It's not a simple building block procedure. A lot of things change in Bermuda's economy and the global economy. But how we performed in last year's Budget gives us an indication of how we will proceed in the future.'' Disappointment was expressed last year that nothing was done to shrink the size of Government -- including public service lay-offs.

But Dr. Gibbons later said that ways to cut the Government payroll would be on the agenda this year.

He said this week: "We are a long way away from the US and definitely a long way away from the European economies -- we are on the conservative side of government, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be vigilant.

"There is a certain point beyond which you can't shrink too much further if you're going to provide basic services -- the Ministry of Finance is very vigilant and we have to be careful about what we provide.

"But the people are the referee on this and they will reach their own judgement, I'm sure.'' He added: "No-one would ever say we are perfect, but we are seen as being effectively managed by outside benchmarks.'' The 1996 Budget was also criticised for not being a "people's budget,'' with increases in land tax and the payroll tax.

At the same time, the duty free allowance was halved from $200 to $100 to promote shopping at home. And plans for a tax on professional services collapsed.

Shadow Finance Minister Eugene Cox slammed the Budget as "nickel and diming'' the Country when a wholesale shake-up of the entire tax structure was needed.

But Dr. Gibbons stressed this week that Budgets are not thrown together on a whim and are produced after months of hard work -- which started last July with a look at major capital projects already approved like Cedarbridge Academy to see what would be affordable in this year's financial blueprint.

Then representatives from the 50-plus Government departments make their pitch for new major projects.

Departments later submit their estimates for the current account -- which covers items like routine running costs, staffing, salaries and wages. The estimates are normally reduced after hard bargaining.

MUM -- Dr. Gibbons TAXES TAX