held today, weather permitting.

But what happens after the referendum? Aside from a tie vote, there are three possible referendum outcomes: A majority of voters could say "no'' to Independence; A majority of voters could say "yes'' to Independence, while fewer than 40 percent of all eligible voters say yes; or A majority of voters could say "yes'' to Independence while 40 percent or more of all eligible voters also say "yes''.

If Bermudians say "no'' to Independence, the Island will have opted to keep its present constitutional status.

The governing United Bermuda Party has pledged not to raise the issue again for the life of the current Parliament.

The Opposition Progressive Labour Party has gone a step further, saying it will not make Independence a major issue in the next general election campaign, either.

But much more is expected to happen. Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan has pledged to resign as leader of the United Bermuda Party immediately following the referendum, and as Bermuda's Premier as soon as a successor is chosen.

And depending on who is chosen as Sir John's successor, a major Cabinet shake-up could be seen as well. Two Cabinet Ministers -- the Hon. Irving Pearman and Transport Minister the Hon. Maxwell Burgess -- have ruled themselves out as suc cessors to Sir John and have said they would move to the back bench for the remaining life of the current Parliament.

Health and Social Services Minister the Hon. Quinton Edness has also said he would move to the back bench, though he has not ruled himself out as the new leader.

Youth and Sport Minister the Hon. Pamela Gordon has ruled herself out as Sir John's successor and said she would not serve in the Cabinet of a Government that was "right of centre''.

Still, as the Premier and others have said, "a week is a long time in politics'', and it remains to be seen who would be part of a new Cabinet and who would not.

Independence proponents have promised a "no'' vote does not mean the issue will go away.

If a majority of those who vote say "yes'' to Independence, it is pos sible that a mandate for Govern ment to seek Independence from the United Kingdom will still not exist.

That is because of a special provision in the Independence Referendum Act that was inserted to satisfy Independence opponents and assure its passage.

In addition to a majority of those who actually vote, 40 percent of all registered voters would have to say "yes'' to Independence for a mandate to exist.

With more than 38,000 voters registered -- a record number -- that means more than 15,000 "yes'' votes would be needed to give a mandate for Independence.

If only 25,000 people voted, and a majority of 14,000 voted "yes'', no mandate for Independence would exist. It is not known what the effect of that sort of outcome would be, except that it would not resolve the Independence issue one way or another.

If both conditions were satisfied -- a majority of voters saying "yes'' and 40 percent of eligible voters saying "yes'' -- Government would have a mandate to negotiate Independence from the UK.

In that event, the Premier has promised a White Paper which would set out Government's position on Independence and would likely be very similar to Government's already-released Independence position papers.

A Constitutional Conference would be convened in London, at which both the Government and the Opposition would be represented.

Legislation to allow for an Independent Bermuda and a new Constitution would have to be passed both by Westminster and by Bermuda's Parliament.

Government has pledged it would do its utmost to bring Bermuda to Independence before the next general election must be held in 1998.