desire of a sizable majority of Bermudians could emerge from a United Bermuda Party caucus meeting this morning, The Royal Gazette has learned.

The key meeting of the UBP's Parliamentary Group occurs amid continued dissent over plans for a referendum on Independence.

The divisive issue faces fresh debate in a caucus where a handful of backbenchers are increasingly critical of Government's approach. The resolve of the dissidents was likely strengthened last week by a blast from Tourism Minister the Hon. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge, who called on Government leaders to "come to their senses'' and withdraw the Independence Referendum Act 1994.

But it is understood Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan held support for Government's approach at a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday. Withdrawal of the bill, which would seriously damage Sir John's leadership, is seen as unlikely.

Sources said yesterday it was also doubtful the UBP would embrace an amendment to the Independence Referendum Act 1994 that was approved by the Senate in March and sent back to the House for debate on May 6.

The amendment, proposed by Independent Sen. Alf Oughton, would change the rules for what would constitute a majority vote in favour of Independence.

Instead of a majority of those who voted, a mandate for Independence would require a majority of eligible voters. In other words, if there were 10,000 eligible voters, there would have to be 5,001 "yes'' votes for Independence, even if only 7,000 turned out at the polls.

While Dr. David Dyer MP is among those in the UBP who have spoken positively about the amendment, Sir John has called it "an affront to our whole democratic system.'' There are those in the UBP who feel "a majority of Bermudians'' must be better defined, but believe approving the Senate amendment would make a vote in favour of Independence practically impossible.

Instead, the referendum result could be clarified in two ways, sources said. A minimum voter turnout, for instance one of 60 percent, could be required before a vote in favour of Independence could be acted on.

Alternatively, or possibly in addition to the first change, there could be a requirement for a 60 percent or two-thirds majority of those who voted to favour Independence, rather than the 50 percent plus one vote initially proposed by Government.

Government Whip and caucus chairman Mr. John Barritt has said the party appeared "headed for a showdown'' today. For his part, the Premier has denied the UBP is in "disarray.'' While Mr. Barritt never used the word "disarray,'' he did say that an outside observer might think a UBP consensus on Independence a "mission impossible.'' Mr. Barritt declined to comment on the Premier's remarks.

Today's meeting takes place after a week in which several MPs spoke out publicly on Independence, despite the fact there was a consensus at a caucus meeting last Thursday that MPs should keep quiet on the issue.

Absent from that meeting was Mr. Woolridge, who was able to plead ignorance of the previous day's caucus discussion when he weighed in with his public comments on Friday, sources said.

Mr. Woolridge also pointed to pro-Independence comments by Transport Minister the Hon. Maxwell Burgess, which were published in The Royal Gazette on April 20. The Tourism Minister, who saw Mr. Burgess' call for support of the Premier as "blackmail,'' felt that if supporters of Independence could speak out, opponents could, too, sources said.

The comments by Mr. Burgess were raised at the Thursday caucus meeting, as were remarks by Education Minister the Hon. Clarence Terceira, who delivered a blistering attack on Independence in a speech at Admiralty House on April 11.