Finance Minister the Hon. David Saul warned in the House of Assembly yesterday.

Tourist numbers are likely to remain low for the rest of the year, he said.

And latest reports indicate that the amount of money each tourist spends is continuing to fall.

Due largely to weak tourism and low consumer spending, Dr. Saul said, Government revenue last year is now figured at $21 million below the original budget estimate.

And revenue prospects for the coming year have been "dampened'' by the impact on Bermuda of a weak international economy.

Lower capital spending has made up for the shortfall, he said, but the spending and the borrowing it requires will have to take place eventually.

The latest report on tourism by Government's economic consultant Dr. Brian Archer showed that per capita spending by air tourists last year was $1,102 while that of cruise passengers was $237.

When inflation was taken into account, air visitor spending was down 2.9 percent last year.

Cruise passenger spending was up 12.7 percent, Dr. Saul said, "but it has to be remembered that they account for only 6.7 percent of the total visitor expenditure on the Island.'' Dr. Saul said there were encouraging signs from the US economy.

"However, I would counsel against over-optimism,'' he said. "The improvement has been largely in the manufacturing sector rather than the service-related areas from which we draw the vast majority of our tourists.

"It is unlikely, therefore, that there will be any significant recovery in the number of air arrivals this year.'' The US dollar is weak compared to other currencies right now, Dr. Saul noted.

This has traditionally helped Bermuda's tourism by making it more expensive for Americans to turn their money into foreign currencies.

But this benefit is likely to be reduced by the discounting of domestic airfares in the US and the heavy marketing of US tourist destinations, he said.

Dr. Saul said up-to-date information on international business was harder to come by. The number of incorporations of new companies has been healthy, he said, but employment by international companies "has been flat, at best,'' in recent months.

Retail sales have declined steadily since November, 1990, Dr. Saul said, "reflecting the contraction in the size of the overall economy and the loss of a significant number of guest workers.

"...Although there are tentative signs that the rate of decline is now bottoming, there is little prospect of any significant upturn in 1992.

"As a consequence, it must be recognised that the financial position of a number of retail outlets has been severely weakened, and the prospect of being able to sustain current employment levels in this sector remains uncertain.''