tourist season seemed to be fizzling.

One hotelier predicted this month would be the worst July the industry has ever seen.

But Tourism Minister the Hon. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge, citing an upward swing in visitor arrivals, was baffled by the Bermuda Hotel Association's gloomy outlook.

He said hoteliers must realise that "a return to the glory days of the 1980s was not gonna happen''.

The BHA reported that occupancies of its member properties last month fell just short of June 1992's (80.9 percent compared to 81 percent last year and 83.6 percent in 1991).

And July and August projections were up only slightly over last year, while September's was down.

BHA president Mr. David Dodwell described the results as a "little disappointing''.

Hotel occupancies for the next three months could wind up much better than projected given the late booking trend, he conceded.

Mr. Dodwell, who sits on the planning team for the Tourism Commission on Competitiveness, said the figures clearly showed a need for a new long-term plan for the industry.

"What was a strong start to the season in the earlier months, April and May, seems to have dropped off,'' he said. "I would have hoped we would have been further along for this period. But we haven't seemed to have made that turn yet to get back to the days of the 1980s.'' Mermaid Beach Hotel owner Mr. Brian Alkon was even more worried by the occupancy projections.

"I have been in the hotel business twenty years and this looks like it's going to be the worst July Bermuda has ever had to deal with -- at least at our hotel,'' he said.

The projected occupancy rate for BHA hotels this month was 68.4 percent, slightly higher than last July's.

But Mr. Alkon said it was already halfway into July and "business was considerably off''.

The smaller hotels and guest houses might be "saved'', he said. But the large and medium sized properties would suffer.

Mr. Alkon said hotels like Grotto Bay and Sonesta Beach might see healthy occupancies, but only because they opted to discount their rates.

He ventured the reason for the drop-off in business was "extremely good weather'' being experienced by Americans on the East Coast, or a lack of confidence in President Clinton's ability to turn the economy around soon.

Mr. Alkon claimed the Tourism Ministry, seeing a good start to the season, had decided to pull most of July's advertisements and save the money to promote the off-season.

He added the Ministry took quick action to replace them after detecting a downturn in July.

Mr. Woolridge said he was "confused'' by the BHA's projections, given the late booking pattern and the fact air arrivals were significantly up.

Latest figures showed air and cruise visitor arrivals for the year so far were up 10.6 percent (by 25,843 visitors) compared to the same period last year, he pointed out.

Air arrivals last week alone were up 11.2 percent (by 1,034 visitors). And the four cruise liners were arriving fully booked, with occupancies of over 100 percent.

The BHA has projected a 44.2 percent average occupancy for next month, compared to 40.5 percent for last August which saw a final occupancy of 71.6 percent. And it projected a 35.9 percent average occupancy for September, compared to 36.6 for September 1992, which saw a final occupancy of 66.7 percent.