something as important as Independence is taking a back seat but we think that comes about because today the majority of the public has already made a decision.

It seems to us that the people view Independence as a football created by politicians for their own motives but having little to do with the people. The reason the people think it has little to do with them is that they do not think it has a realistic chance of happening. Of course, if they saw Independence as a realistic consideration for public debate, they would be busy writing letters, pro and con. But there are grave dangers for Bermuda in complacency bred of assumptions that Independence cannot happen.

A public meeting in Somerset has been told that support for Independence is increasing and that there is a "groundswell'' for Independence. If that is true today it is a well hidden groundswell because there are very few public signs of such a change of opinion. Perhaps talking about an Independence "groundswell'' makes the people in favour of Independence think that it will be self-fulfilling.

Clearly Bermuda is going to have a commission followed by a referendum. When? We are not sure but maybe as early as the end of the coming summer. Premier Sir John Swan must hope that the commission will turn a public which we believe is now about two thirds opposed to Independence into a majority which is in favour of Independence. The result of the commission's deliberations may well depend on who is appointed to that commission. However to retain credibility the commission will at least have to appear to be neutral. If the commission deals honestly with the realities of the cost of Independence, we think that far from becoming a "groundswell' in favour, the numbers in favour may well decrease.

The reality is that the issue could become clouded. The PLP might turn Independence into a black-white issue. We think we saw some sign of that when the Somerset meeting was told that emancipation of slaves, racial integration and votes for all had been pondered over and that intellectuals and people over 45 tended to be against cutting ties with Britain.

We think we also see divisiveness happening in claims that white Bermudians are trying to move their money out of the Island and that exchange controls are being relaxed by the UBP government for that purpose.

It is generally accepted that the PLP "played the race card'' at the last election and it may be that the PLP is willing to do so again. The chairman of the PLP is already suggesting the improbable by saying that the PLP would have won last October had it advocated Independence. Figures in favour of Independence suggest that the PLP vote might have been hard hit if Independence had been an issue.

Ideally Bermudians should consider Independence calmly and together but that is probably not possible given the lack of depth in Bermudian politics. If Independence does become a racial issue then the flight of white cash will be as self fulfilling a statement as the suggestion of a "groundswell'' could become.