power, two senior advisors to the Premier say.

Transport Minister the Hon. Maxwell Burgess said the Government would have no choice but to call an election if it was defeated on its Independence initiative.

"Failure would leave no alternative,'' he told The Royal Gazette . "We would have to go to the country.'' Mr. Burgess said the UBP would be so wounded by defeat that its coalition would probably not hold.

Mr. Edgar Wilkinson, long-time advisor to the Premier, advised opponents of Sir John Swan to "cool it.'' "Think what the alternative is,'' he said. "I've heard other people tell me at parties `Let's get Swan out' without the slightest thought.

"The whole house of cards could topple in a flash. If the leader was toppled, the only possible successor is (PLP Leader) Freddie Wade.'' Mr. Wilkinson said toppling the Premier would create a lot of bad feelings in party ranks, leading possibly to widespread, Government-killing defections.

The two men were contacted by the newspaper this week about a March 26 story that revealed some UBP members were so angry with the Premier's Independence initiative they were saying it was time for him to step down.

The party is facing a stern test when Parliament reconvenes on May 6 to begin its summer session.

On the agenda is a PLP motion to reject Government's plan to set up a Commission of Inquiry on Independence. Government's slim 21-18 majority is threatened by possible abstentions from some members who are angry about the plan.

In addition, the House may deal with a Senate amendment to Government Independence Referendum legislation.

The amendment, which has support among some disaffected UBP MPs, would peg any decisive referendum result to a majority of persons entitled to vote as opposed to a simple majority who actually vote. The Premier has described the amendment as an affront to Bermuda's democratic tradition.

Mr. Burgess said any party fight that caused the Premier to step down would lead to the election of a new leader who would in all likelihood be pro-Independence.

"You can't get rid of John Swan on Independence and then elect someone who is the same,'' he said. "You also can't elect a new leader who is anti-Independence.'' Mr. Burgess said he accepted the Premier's thinking that a decision on Independence offered the country new opportunity.

"Independence can create a new hope,'' he said. "The black community in Bermuda is presently rioting without tear gas. In their view, there are few opportunities for them or their children.

"Independence will cause Bermuda to rally together, blacks and whites, rich and poor, for a common betterment.

"I meet people every day who tell me that this country's race relations have deteriorated to pre-1968 conditions -- that's both blacks and whites telling me.

"The sense of hopelessness I hear is something which any government is duty-bound to respond to.'' Mr. Burgess said the Island must look for "a common ground to rebuild''.

Independence was one way to do it.

Mr. Wilkinson, a former UBP chairman who personally favours Independence, said his party was currently feeling the strains felt across the community. It was an important clue to understanding current unhappiness within UBP ranks.

"To my mind, race relations are nowhere near as good as they were ten years ago,'' Mr. Wilkinson said. "We've just been drifting apart. And as society has been drifting apart, so we (in the UBP) must be drifting apart.'' Both gentlemen indicated they saw Independence as a watershed issue for their party.

"We're really debating the future of the party,'' Mr. Burgess said. "I'm taking personal responsibility for the future of party in speaking out because they (the anti-Independence Swan critics) haven't thought this through as I have.'' Mr. Wilkinson said he didn't think the fate of the UBP rested on the issue, but "I do think its immediate future rests on it because we're becoming very divided over this issue.

"People should just think this through, and then let events play themselves out.''