The arguments for and against Independence have not changed much in 20 years -- but the debate over whether Bermuda should remain a British territory has been around since close to the start of human settlement of the Island. In the latest in a series of articles leading up to the Independence referendum on August 15, The Royal Gazette looks at the long history of the Independence movement. Tomorrow: The other alternative -- "spoiled'' ballots.

It never seems to have gone away and a generation able to vote now were not born when the issue first raised its political head in modern times.

History shows that the same arguments have been used for and against -- business will suffer, economic chaos will ensue, it will unite the people and "it's inevitable anyway''.

That was in the 1970s and almost 20 years later things have gone full circle.

The difference this time is that the issue has been laid at the feet of the people. Whether they walk to the polls remains to be seen.

In many ways the question of Independence has dogged the Island since the Sea Venture was shipwrecked here in 1609 and the origins of colonisation were laid.

Some of the English crew mutinied three times in an attempt to stay and eventually three men were left behind, including the Island's first real settler, Christopher Carter.

As word of the Island's beauty spread the Virginia Company sent colonists, but the Island's dependence was sold out to the Bermuda Company for $2,000. The much disliked company, which controlled every aspect of Island life from London, was eventully dissolved near the end of the 17th Century and for the first time Bermuda came under the control of the British Government.

Islanders were apparently happy to see the end of the Company which left just one, important, legacy, Parliament.

Feelings about the British Government were perhaps not quite so clear and during the American War of Independence, British troops arrived because of the Island's sympathies to America.

The US even tried to invade Bermuda and wrest control from Britain and once, a $1,000 bribe was sent to the British Government to try and replace an unpopular Governor with a Bermudian. Hence the foundations for the Independence debate were laid, but politically it did not perhaps really become an issue until 30 years ago with the forming of the Progressive Labour Party and shortly afterwards, the United Bermuda Party.

In those 30 years the issue has been widely debated, but history shows that that debate is coming full circle.

In 1977 a Green Paper was produced by the Government followed by a White Paper in 1978 on Independence and on February 22, 1978, a politician was quoted as saying: "I feel satisfied that Bermuda is ready to look towards Independence.'' It took almost exactly 17 years from then to introduce legislation to pave the way for a referendum on Independence. It was squeezed through the House of Assembly after two abortive attempts in 1994.

In September 1978, the Hon. Stanley Gascoigne said Independence "was inevitable'' and was just a matter of time. In 1995, the same sentiments are again being issued forth.

Former Premier, the Hon. David Gibbons, sought to reassure businesses during a speech in 1979 that moves towards Independence would not signal a radical change in the style of Government.

Fears that the business community could shy away from Bermuda, post-Independence, are again being expressed and similarly soothed.

The issue of "oneness'', or the bringing together of the Island's people, was seen as a benefit of Independence. Again the unifying effect of emerging from Britain's shadow is also quoted.

In 1986 the issue of Indpendence was again raised when former Senate President the Hon. Hugh Richardson sought approval for a Private Member's Bill demanding a referendum on Indpendence.

Costs were widely debated then and costs today are a main talking point.

Comparisons were made with the Bahamas and today comparisons are still being made with former colonies.

The future shape of the Constitution was an issue in the 1980s as it is today with the PLP calling for a change in the Constitution before any thought was given to Independence. History coming full circle again.

Also in the late 1980s, the Premier Sir John Swan was forced into a U-turn by his own Party when he tried to bring the Independence issue to the fore.

He went silent on the debate until the 1990s, when the question of a referendum was raised in 1993, two years before legislation for a people's vote was finally passed.

Writing in the epilogue to his book "The Story of Bermuda and her People'', author Mr. William S. Zuill, said: "We tend to think of history as something which happened long ago but it is as much what happened in the last 100 or 1,000 years.'' He says the Bermuda people have always been under the Union Jack and while the British Empire has only a little of its former glory it gives a degree of safety to those who shelter under it.

He writes: "Bermudians should always bear in mind that this community is a small one, affected by events and nations around it.

"Our motto is Quo Fata Ferunt -- `Where the Fates Lead Us' -- and this remains as true today as it was for the Sea Venture's crew and passengers, when, by a stroke of good fortune, they sighted Bermuda through the ocean spray and set in train the events which led to the present day.'' With opinion heavily favouring a no vote on August 15, will history again repeat itself in the year 2010?