only a narrow "window of opportunity'' to do so, political observers say.

Their guesstimates show the election would have to take place on or between Thursday, November 26 and Thursday, December 10.

Those dates are bracketed by the US presidential vote on November 3 and the last week before the Christmas season takes firm hold of the Island.

The law requires a minimum of 21 days from the "dropping of the election writ'' to polling day.

The Premier has demonstrated a penchant for calling elections about every three years -- a pattern that puts a pre-Christmas vote within the loop.

And he has always played his election guards close to his chest, never wavering to pounce when he thinks the moment is right.

Last night, Sir John remained true to form. "No comment,'' he said to a series of questions on election possibilities.

United Bermuda Party insiders and observers are more forthcoming on possibilities and reasons for an election call though all admit they are not really in the know.

"It's the Premier's decision,'' one said. "It's his and his alone and he keeps it that way.'' All of them spoke only on condition of anonymity -- an indication they felt they were stepping on the Premier's turf.

What does emerge from discussions is that a pre-Christmas election call is not a cut-and-dry matter. The arguments for going soon as opposed to next spring or beyond are well balanced.

Generally, it is believed Sir John will wait at least for the US vote on November 3. That result is seen as important for Bermuda, especially if Democratic candidate Governor Bill Clinton wins.

President Bush is seen as a friend of Bermuda while Mr. Clinton presents a challenge. A Clinton presidency would deprive Bermuda of an ally in the White House at a time the US military is cutting back its commitments overseas.

"If Clinton gets in, the Premier's got to do a lot of building to get those close ties back on,'' one party official said.

"It's going to take some savvy work, and the Premier is best positioned to put himself forward as the best man to do it.'' At the same time, party officials say the UBP is best prepared for any fight to keep the US Naval Air Station from closing.

"Only a Swan Government could stop it,'' one representative said.

A less obvious reason for an early poll is the British election in May that saw Mr. John Major's Conservatives win a stunning victory over Labour.

"That election is a factor because if the Opposition had won, if Labour had been elected, it would have been an indication of a need for change,'' one advisor said.

"Bermudians are closer (to Britian than the US) in terms of elections. They tend to feel them more closely.'' The message for the United Bermuda Party was the British electorate's unwillingness to change in a time of economic difficulty.

It leads Party strategists to the quirky conclusion that current economic difficulties do not necessarily hurt the UBP.

"The chances are the ruling party would retain an electoral advantage,'' one Party representative said. "I don't think people would be willing to trust an untried party with no economic plan during times like this.'' There is also a belief among Party members that an early election call would catch the Progressive Labour Party off-guard despite its weekly announcements of new candidates.

The UBP's primary elections, along with a stern order by the Premier a few months back, has seen candidates and MPs canvassing their districts.

The arguments against a pre-Christmas call begin with the concerns for a public backlash it could stir.

"People might say it's wrong, that we're in the middle of a recession, that we don't have to go now,'' one party strategist said. "There could be a backlash.'' There is also the question of whether the Premier is prepared. This summer in a speech to the Bohemian Club in San Fransisco, he outlined thoughts on how Bermuda could succeed in an increasingly hostile and challenging world.

Key party members say the speech contained all the elements of a election-winning philosophy and programme. Yet the Premier has done little to refine the message found in its 18-plus pages and to play it to local audiences, although he has launched programmes that are pegged as the first step in helping Bermuda live with itself and to keep its place in the world.

But none of them -- the Commission on Competitiveness, the Judge Tumin report on the justice system, the task force on unemployment, the National Drug Strategy or the education reforms -- are complete or in place.

"Government has a number of major programmes to conclude,'' one Minister said. "They would work more in our favour if they were concluded or closer to conclusion.

"The same goes for the incinerator and the new prison. There are also big building projects such as the Bank of Butterfield and possibly the Elbow Beach redevelopment.

"People might feel better about the economy as we head into the spring next year. It might also be in our favour to wait for North American recovery to begin. But it's the Premier's decision.''