Gazette has learned.

The date for the vote is the Premier's call. He was off the Island yesterday attending an insurance conference in San Francisco. But Deputy Premier the Hon. Irving Pearman -- who has previously talked of a summer referendum -- would not rule out a delay in the vote until near Christmas.

"The window of opportunity is there from the time the referendum bill is passed, through to the end of the year,'' Mr. Pearman told The Royal Gazette yesterday. "That is what is in the legislation.'' The business community has been pushing to get the referendum dealt with as soon as possible. But there are several reasons why a summer referendum is likely no longer on the cards: The large number of Bermudians who travel in summer, particularly during August; The time that is required for 15 to 20 Independence position papers to be approved by Cabinet and caucus and disseminated to the public; The fact that the Progressive Labour Party call for a boycott of the referendum could doom the Premier's hope for a "yes'' vote; and The feeling among some United Bermuda Party members that a delay in the referendum could widen PLP divisions over the boycott call.

Mr. Pearman, who initially said a July referendum was expected and later said the "July-August'' period was being looked at, would not say yesterday that a summer referendum was still planned. Since Government wants to hold the vote when university students are home, the Christmas break would provide the next opportunity.

It was Sir John's call, and "he wants to see everything lined up'' before a decision is made, Mr. Pearman said.

Similar to the way a writ is issued for a general election, the Premier's intention to hold a referendum must be advertised in the Official Gazette 30 to 60 days before the vote is held.

Asked if there were logistical problems with holding the referendum this summer, Mr. Pearman said: "That's a loaded question.'' But early on, when a July referendum was planned, Mr. Pearman dismissed complaints about Bermudians traveling at that time by saying most Bermudians travel during August. Subsequently, August became the earliest month Government felt the vote could be held. While Bermuda offers advance polls for those who will be traveling on referendum day, there is no legislation to provide for absentee ballots, as in some countries.

Secondly, the need to prepare Government "position papers'' on how issues like citizenship and judicial appointments would be handled in an Independent Bermuda seriously hinders the speed with which the Premier can move.

When the referendum bill was passed, one of the concessions to assure support from dissident UBP backbenchers was a promise that the position papers would be debated by the Government caucus before they were finalised. By contrast, the Green Paper on Independence was presented to backbenchers as a completed document. Sending the position papers to caucus will take more time.

Thirdly, while Sir John and much of his Cabinet wants a "yes'' vote on Independence, they know it is virtually impossible if the vote is held this summer.

In another concession to UBP backbenchers, a mandate for Independence will require "yes'' votes from at least 40 percent of all eligible voters. That means about 14,000 yes votes will be needed -- or about 1,300 more votes than the UBP received in the 1993 general election.

With the latest published poll showing Bermudian support for Independence at only 26 percent, 14,000 yes votes would be a dramatic result at the best of times. With early signs that many pro-Independence PLP supporters will heed the Opposition party's call for a boycott, a yes vote this summer is fanciful.

A delay would give the pro-Independence forces that dominate Cabinet more time to try to change the numbers.

Finally, there are those in the UBP who feel a delay would exploit divisions in the PLP over the boycott call.

UBP insider Mr. Edgar Wilkinson said he had not discussed the referendum date with the Premier, but, "I personally feel the later we have it, the better, only to let the PLP tear themselves to pieces.

"The longer they have to fight among themselves, the better it is for us,'' he said.

Dismissing calls from the business community to get the referendum over with, Mr. Wilkinson said a referendum this summer would not finally resolve the issue.

"It's only postponed to the next election,'' he said. "Referenda don't bind anyone to anything.''