In what could spark a wave of threatened Cabinet resignations, Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan says he will resign unless Bermudians vote for Independence in the August 15 referendum.

Health and Social Services Minister the Hon. Quinton Edness said yesterday that he would do the same. And he promised similar messages would come from other Cabinet Ministers today.

"I would not call it blackmail,'' Sir John said at a news conference yesterday. "What I would call it is putting my neck on the line.'' There was intense speculation all weekend about the Premier's message, which was delivered to Cabinet at 11.30 a.m., the United Bermuda Party caucus at noon, and the news media over lunch.

Announcing his plan to resign as Premier in the event of a "no'' vote, Sir John cited continued criticism of the referendum process, despite the fact it had been approved by caucus and by Parliament.

"I have been attacked even by my own colleagues who supported the referendum,'' Sir John said. Now he would "let the people decide ...

whether Bermuda should go independent and whether I should continue as their leader.

"I've been forced to marry the two together,'' he said. "I had no intention of doing that, but I'm left with no choice.'' Believing that Independence was the best thing for Bermuda, "I want to be sure if I'm going to be there (as Premier), there is something to move ahead with,'' Sir John said.

"Although I might have the majority consent of my colleagues, unless I have the majority consent of people voting in this referendum, it's time to let someone else do the job.'' He deflected questions on whether he thought his resignation threat would persuade more Bermudians to vote "yes''.

A poll published by The Royal Gazette last week suggested that only 17 percent of eligible voters would say "yes'' in the referendum, while 68 percent would say "no''.

Even if a majority of votes cast in the referendum were in favour of Independence, but 40 percent of the total electorate did not vote "yes'', Sir John said he would resign. Under the terms of the Independence Referendum Act 1995, both conditions must be met for a mandate to negotiate Independence to exist.

"The position he's taken is the desperate act of a desperate man, making a desperate last attempt to convince people they ought to vote `yes' for Independence regardless of their views on Independence,'' said Opposition Leader Mr. Frederick Wade.

It was a "tragedy'' that Sir John had not been able to address problems like racism or unequal distribution of wealth in 13 years in office, but "is now pulling out all the stops'' on Independence, he said.

"His threat that he's the Messiah may well blow up in his face,'' Mr. Wade said. "The graveyard is full of people who were indispensable.'' Sen. Gary Pitman, the UBP chairman who read the Premier's letter to caucus, said Sir John had served Bermuda well since he was elected leader in 1982.

"Should the people decide `no' (on August 15), I think we will be losing a sterling leader, and it will be the Country's loss,'' Sen. Pitman said.

Government Whip Mr. John Barritt said he always felt it would be "the honourable thing'' for Sir John to resign in the event of a "no'' vote.

"On the other hand ... I hope people don't now vote the 15th as a question of whether you are for or against Swan dependence,'' Mr. Barritt said. "To my mind, the question of Independence is greater and more important than any one person, and even a lifetime.'' Government backbencher Mr. Trevor Moniz said the Premier would have been expected to resign in any case. As for the comments by Mr. Edness, "I suspect that there's a concerted plan of action to try to effect the good judgment of the voters,'' Mr. Moniz said. "I hope that I'm wrong.'' UBP MP Dr. David Dyer said "there seems to be a level of intent to put greater pressure on the voters.

"It may affect one or two people,'' Dr. Dyer said. "I don't see people in large numbers being forced into something they were never a party to. People have to remain firm and stick to their guns.'' Former Government and Independent MP Mr. Harry Viera described the Premier's announcement as "transparent ... second-rate theatre.'' "He stands up and rocks the punt and then makes you believe he's the only one who can calm the storm,'' Mr. Viera said.

But Transport Minister the Hon. Maxwell Burgess said the Premier "did the right and proper thing'' and stopped the real issue on August 15 from being clouded.

Several in the UBP had said Sir John should resign in the event of a "no'' vote, Mr. Burgess noted. "To have some of those very same people now suggesting that this move is suspect and outright blackmail is hypocrisy of the highest order,'' he said.

"It is a sad day for Bermuda when any group of people would sink so low.'' And Mr. Edness said the Premier had "given his heart and soul to this Country''.

While he would keep his seat in Warwick West, "should there be a negative vote I will have no choice but to resign my Cabinet post'', he said.

While some in the UBP have said Sir John would have to step aside in the event of a "no'' vote, "I'm not going to have someone else decide my morality for me,'' the Premier said. "I'm going to decide my own morality.'' His resignation as UBP leader would take effect immediately on August 16, while he would stay on as Premier "a matter of weeks'' to give his party time to choose a successor.

Sir John, who would not name who he felt should succeed him, said he would stay on as a UBP MP for Paget East for the life of the current Parliament.

He said he did not want to wait until the last minute to announce his intention to resign in the event of a "no' vote. "I felt I should do it sufficiently early enough so the dust could settle.'' Sir John said he would continue to lobby hard for a "yes'' vote and he planned to attend Cup Match both days.

Harshly criticised for last week extending an "olive branch'' to the Progressive Labour Party and embracing the Opposition demand of single-seat constituencies, Sir John would not rule out further overtures to the PLP.

He would not rule out promising that in return for a "yes'' vote he would call a general election to determine which party should take Bermuda to Independence. However, that was asking for "two bites of the cherry'', and he would rule it out "unless there were some very extenuating circumstances''.