Cabinet shuffle. He has to be fair to those ministers who have stuck by him in the tough times and he has to include in his Cabinet enough of "The Five'' to heal the rift in his Parliamentary Group. It will not be easy.

Of "The Five'', it seems clear that Trevor Moniz will not be considered as suitable for any Cabinet. He is not a team player or, indeed, a UBP player. It is also unlikely that Dr. Saul would consider Ann Cartwright DeCouto for a Cabinet post in the wake of her support to censure him. Yet, he will have to remember just how much the UBP needs her Pembroke West Central seat. That leaves two former ministers, Dr. Clarence Terceira and C.V. Jim Woolridge, and backbencher Dr. David Dyer in Cabinet consideration.

There are some star Cabinet members like Jerome Dill and Pamela Gordon whom Premier Saul has to look after. Mr. Dill should stay as Minister of Education to see through the completion of the new mega-school and through the audit which he ordered of the Ministry of Education. The only way the Premier can possibly move Ms Gordon is up.

He is unlikely to touch the party warhorse, Quinton Edness, who appears settled at Home Affairs, or David Dodwell who is working very hard at Tourism.

Grant Gibbons is another matter. He has been carrying both the Bases transition and Finance, both of which are important, but he would probably like to get rid of one of them. However, there is a problem. His success has been with bases transition. The disaster he created was at Finance when he agreed to Grape Bay Ltd., yet there is no-one else to fill Finance.

Clearly, Wayne Furbert has been struggling with the Transport portfolio, yet he is said to poll high in Hamilton West which is a marginal constituency vital to the UBP. To replace him might cause his election defeat. Clearly Harry Soares will be moved from the Health Ministry and the problems of the prisons. The post could well be filled by dentists Terceira or Dyer but we would not be surprised to see Pamela Gordon promoted there after her success with Environment.

Community and Cultural Affairs Minister Yvette Swan has been both very active and good at her job and if, as it seems, the UBP considers the Senator a potential candidate in Warwick, then she needs the Cabinet exposure. Youth and Sport Minister Tim Smith was demoted once when he should have been dropped from the Cabinet. His House seat is safe but not one of "The Five'' is likely to relish the Youth and Sport ministry.

Telecommunications Minister John Barritt, Dr. Saul's running mate, has indicated a willingness to make room for one of "The Five'' and his seat is safe. He will probably go.

All of these decisions and the future of this Cabinet are clouded by ongoing public speculation on the future of Dr. Saul himself. The United Bermuda Party is still unsettled. Many see a bleak future for the UBP if Dr. Saul continues in the leadership until the next election but they are unable to suggest a viable replacement.

Dr. Saul has said that he is going to do a minimum of two years as Premier, but some UBP supporters believe that if he does not go before Parliament reconvenes, it will be too late to establish a new leader and revive the party's fortunes.