The Independence issue can help the United Bermuda Party win re-election, says the party's American pollster.

Dr. Douglas Schoen, a partner in Penn & Schoen and the UBP's pollster for the last 16 years, said 85 to 90 percent of Bermudians want more information on the issue and "70 to 80 percent endorse the process that is now being engaged in''.

Speaking at the UBP's "Blueprint and Beyond'' conference at the Southampton Princess, Dr. Schoen offered advice on how the long-ruling party could withstand the "cry for change'' that was sweeping aside governments around the world.

Cabinet is preparing a discussion paper on Independence called a Green Paper and has promised a referendum on the issue next summer.

"If the process is adhered to and there is a full airing of the pros and cons...the Independence issue will only be a benefit to the party and the Country,'' Dr. Schoen told a UBP conference at the Southampton Princess on Saturday.

Asked specifically by UBP backbencher Mr. Trevor Moniz whether a majority of Bermudians wanted a referendum on Independence, Dr. Schoen hedged somewhat.

After receiving sufficient information, "I think it's the case that the Bermudian people would like an opportunity to be heard on the subject'', he said. "A referendum or some process along those lines is in line with public opinion.

"I don't want to say a particular approach has been tested or advocated for going through the process.'' Dr. Schoen added some important caveats. If it hopes to win the election due within four years, the UBP must keep the promises it made in the 1993 campaign Blueprint, he said. And MPs and adopted candidates had to canvass regularly.

"We've seen a renewed desire among Bermudians to see Government stick to its promises and stay in touch with people. "Take the Blueprint as articulated and implement as many of the recommendations as are practical,'' Dr. Schoen said. "It is not enough to say: `Well, we tried, or we did our best, but we couldn't get it done'.'' Further, the UBP needed to "create a society where opportunity is open to all'', and and avoid internal fighting, he said.

Young people returning to the Island with college educations and high hopes will support whichever party appeared to offer them the greatest opportunity, he said.

"Voters will reject an opposition (party) if they believe that opposition is not qualified to govern or does not offer an alternative,'' Dr. Schoen said.

"The PLP (Progressive Labour Party) has not proven itself able to govern...capable of handling the challenges that are faced.'' Citing recent elections in the United States and other examples, Dr. Schoen said there was a feeling in western democracies "that anything is better than incumbents and we should have change for the sake of change''.

This phenomenon "clearly puts great pressure'' on the UBP, which has won eight consecutive general elections since 1968.

While Bermudians were different from Americans or Canadians in that they were not embracing change for change's sake, it "would be a mistake...to simply conclude the UBP is better, different, or able to withstand the trends'', Dr.

Schoen said.

There were three keys to the western "cry for change''. People felt their personal economic situations were not improving, that Government was not helping the situation, and that Government promises did not result in action.

"It is to those keys that the UBP must look if it is to withstand the inevitable cries for change,'' he said.