the waters for an election call.

But the telephone survey by US advisors Penn & Schoen is expected to be just one factor in a complex equation to determine the most advantageous time to go to the polls.

Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan, who has always used the utmost secrecy in exercising his right to call an election, has until February 8, 1994 to call one -- just a day short of the last vote five years ago.

The Premier's call can allow up to 90 days for campaigning, which means the next election could occur as late as May 8, 1994.

Party sources say the current polling questions people on attitudes toward the party leaders and national issues such as education, crime, drugs, youth, and the environment.

The results will also provide insight into voter reaction to Government's new budget, which the Progressive Labour Party has labelled an unbridled election document.

But UBP insiders say the Budget -- even if widely perceived to be a good one -- is not enough in itself to warrant an election.

They believe the party must also show concrete progress on a number of top national issues.

Today's announcement by Education Minister the Hon. Gerald Simons on education reform is one example of a major issue that UBP insiders say must be brought under control before a vote.

Other top issues that can be turned into election pluses include legislative progress on the Tumim report for reform of the criminal justice system, the establishment of the National Drug Strategy, the Commission to improve Bermuda's competitiveness and the Employment Task Force.

But Government's budget is considered the lynchpin to any election plan because it touches on the most important national issue: the economy and how Bermuda has fared in the recession.

"Basically, it will come down to management of the country,'' one senior minister said of the next election.

One party official said polling had shown there were a lot of undecided voters "across the board'' and that building political momentum was vital to winning them over.

The budget, he said, was the first significant opportunity to build momentum.

"The budget is a very important ingredient because the economy is vital,'' one minister said. "A no-new taxes budget that allows for the expansion of social services to meet social needs is a pretty attractive plan.'' Party strategists tend to view the year in three-to-four month blocks of time in which an election can be called.

A successful budget debate combined with new jobs as the tourism season picks up are considered good reasons for an April-May vote. However, that "window of opportunity'' is considered by some to be too early for politically beneficial progress to be made on other issues.

Party officials rule out a summer vote because too many voters are away. A summer vote is also seen as an unwelcome intrusion on tourism.

One minister didn't rule out the possibility of another February vote, given that Government has twice before gone to the country in that month.

But the best bet at this time appears to be a September-October election when the economy has had a good chance to recover under UBP management.

"It depends on where the greatest window of opportunity is,'' one Minister said. "And the Premier is the one who makes the decision.''