The coming hurricane season may be a very active one, if past experience with the weather phenomenon "La Nina'' is anything to go on.

Hurricane forecaster Lixion Avila was speaking yesterday as he prepared a speech on the weather at the Bermuda Biological Station for Research last night.

Dr. Avila, one of six hurricane specialists at the US National Hurricane Centre in Miami, said he was happy to be in Bermuda and would be meeting with local forecasters.

He said while long term predictions on hurricanes were not his forte -- something left to the University of Colorado's William Gray -- the NTC had predicted an average year for hurricanes.

There will be ten storms and five or six named hurricanes he said, adding: "Nobody can really predict where they're going to be heading.'' Dr. Avila's doctoral dissertation was written on the effects of the El Nino weather pattern.

The La Nina pattern, which follows El Nino, usually brings the kind of upper level wind patterns that encourage hurricane growth.

"If La Nina persists, we will probably see volatility (in the storms). But I can't tell you if it will persist.'' He added: "Some scientists are telling us that it will persist throughout the summer. If that is the case we will have strong hurricanes throughout the summer in the Caribbean and North Atlantic.'' Dr. Avila said it only takes one hurricane to make a season memorable, adding: "An example is 1992 with Hurricane Andrew which was a slow year. But Andrew was the most devastating storm in history.'' He continued: "Bermudians all remember Hurricane Emily.'' Dr. Avila said the level of cooperation among the Caribbean nations, Bermuda, and the US, has made preparing for storms easier.

"The contact that I have had with them is very cordial and professional. We have an operational plan which works well.''