movements of the storm this morning will be "critical'' in determining whether or not Bermuda lies in its path.

And even though the force of the storm is weakening, it has already brought massive disruptions to the Island.

Meteorologists at the Bermuda Weather Service initially believed that Arlene could come within 32 nautical miles east of Bermuda, bringing with it winds of up to 65 knots.

But latest predictions, provided late last night with the help of the Miami Hurricane Centre, now put the centre of the storm as passing 52 nautical miles east of here by tomorrow lunchtime.

It was also first thought that Arlene would strike later this afternoon, when winds were at their strongest. But the storm has slowed down considerably and is set to impact 24 hours later than expected. By that time wind speeds could be as low as 35 knots.

Last night Bermuda Weather Service meteorologist Ed Loder said: "We are still in a threat situation and tomorrow morning is going to prove critical.

"It's a little further to the east and it's also moving more slowly so it is now less of a threat -- but these things can change it could still do a lot of damage. We are still in a tropical watch situation and it's a bit too close for comfort.

"But it's not a system that's weakening fast and tomorrow morning will be a critical time. By then we will be able to see if it has weakened out enough.

Last night Arlene was lying 212 nautical miles southeast of the Island at latitude 30.1 degrees north and 61.5 degrees longitude west. Maximum sustained winds are around 45 knots, with gusts up to 55 knots.

But even though Arlene might not hit directly, the threat of stormy weather has already brought disruption to the Island.

Captains of the various cruise ships, normally here throughout the week, are expected to leave earlier than scheduled.

Both the Zenith and Horizon could sail for home later today while Nordic Empress bypassed the Island completely in favour of the Bahamas' when the crew heard about the impending storm.

And the Norwegian Crown and Norwegian Majesty were said to be considering leaving for home later today.

The car ship Maersk Taiyo , which was due to bring in 170 vehicles this morning, has also put off its trip and will now arrive on Friday.

But the storm threat failed to disrupt the travel plans of two Royal Navy Frigates.

HMS Marlborough arrived at Dockyard yesterday morning as scheduled, while HMS Northumberland is due in tomorrow, again as planned.

Last night a spokesman for Marine and Ports warned all sailors to get their vessels prepared should the storm strike.

"People should be checking their moorings now, while the weather's good, and also tying down anything that looks as though it might shift around.

Arlene heading our way Air carriers are also keeping a close eye on the storm, though an airport operations spokesman confirmed that so far that none of today's scheduled arrivals had been cancelled.

Although the Emergency Measures Organisation, which spearheads safety routines in the wake of a national emergency, has not yet met, a Police spokesman confirmed that the organisations transmitter -- used to provide information to the public should both VSB and ZBM stations be knocked out, was being tested.

"Should the storm hit, we'll be ready,'' a Police spokesman said.

The threat has also brought disruptions elsewhere. The venue for today's annual jazz concert has been switched from Victoria Park to the Number One shed on Front Street in anticipation of the bad weather.

And two outdoor fetes have also been cancelled. The Chamber of Commerce yesterday confirmed that this week's Heritage Night in King's Square, St.

George's, and Harbour Night on Front Street had both been scrapped.

Ironically in August of 1963, a Hurricane named Arlene slammed into the Island. Described in The Royal Gazette as "a short, sharp and vicious hurricane'', it caused a great deal of damage to both buildings and vegetation.