Recessions aren't like hurricanes if one hits somewhere else, it does not mean Bermuda has dodged a bullet. Bermuda Employers' Council head Martin Law says the financial storm could damage everything in its wake.

Bermuda isn't another world when it comes to economic crisis and job cuts, says Martin Law of the Bermuda Employers' Council.

And he said the sooner people realise that the same economic laws apply to this Island as the rest of the world, the better Bermuda will be in coping with the recession.

But Mr. Law, who is the organisation's executive director, fears complacency could lead to calamity.

He said: "I have heard people say that the effects won't be as great as other places, that Bermuda is a 'Teflon environment', but that is not realistic. We are seeing shrinkage in our economy, these things are real."

Last week, former Government statistician Cordell Riley said 300 jobs have been lost in Bermuda over the past eight months representing less than one percent of the 40,000 jobs in the Island's economy.

And he said projections for 2009 showed jobs will fall marginally from 40,068 in 2008 to 40,037, with the finance sector to fall five percent, the real estate sector by 3.4 percent while the public sector was expected to increase 3.3 percent.

Mr. Law said growing Government is not the answer to Bermuda's job situation.

"Who pays for that? All the other businesses on the Island. People think it's great to get into Government jobs because they are safe.

"Well, they are not as safe as people think if the economy gets really bad. Sustaining the economy is not well achieved by growing the Civil Service."

Some believe that with one in three jobs held by non-Bermudians and tough labour laws favouring locals, that any contraction in employment isn't likely to hurt Bermudians so much.

But Mr. Law said: "If our economy starts to shrink it will lose impetus, if that happens we will be in more serious financial trouble."

He said Bermuda had 13,000 work permit holders because the Island had 40,000 jobs and only 27,000 working locals.

"It's not simply a mathematical thing drop an expatriate and replace with a Bermudian who is out of work. It doesn't always work like that because jobs are not always like for like."

Thus a mechanic trained in computer diagnostics wouldn't easily be replaced by someone with traditional spanner-wielding skills, while a redundant accountant would not be able to replace an actuary even though they were both in financial services.

Mr. Law is encouraged by a growing realisation among unions about the challenges of employers as could be seen by the recent deal at Bermuda Broadcasting Company involving the Bermuda Industrial Union.

"It was a realistic approach and surprised some people. I think it is a sign of acceptance that we are in tough economic times."

And he admitted there was little the average person could do about the malaise, other than be sensible with their spending and adaptable.

"The days of traditional thinking where jobs had clear demarcation lines 'this is my job, this is what I do, don't ask me to do anything else' are gone.

"Being productive, flexible and sticking with it are important.

"I fear complacency will prevent people from understanding the very real threats that exist."

He also wants people to understand that international business is Bermuda's economy.

Eighty cents out of every dollar in a Bermudian's pocket comes directly or indirectly from international business, said Mr. Law.

It's a difficult concept to grasp for those working in industries totally unrelated to international finance but Mr. Law said Bermuda's economy was driven by foreign earnings.

He said in 2007 tourism drew in about $500 million, although even some of that was business-related visits, while international business drew in about $2.4 billion.

Breaking that down into understandable terms, he likened the money that lives in Bermuda to savings, and foreign earnings to a wage.

"If you don't have enough earnings you end up living on your savings, which is the pot of money in Bermuda right now.

"That's why it is so important that we keep earning money so that it's topping up the economy all the time.

"A greater understanding is needed across the Bermudian population about how important international business is and how necessary it is to have all the work permits we have so there is a sense of realism."

There are some historical perceptions, said Mr. Law that international business is here for itself, that it takes money out of the country and that it takes jobs away from Bermudians.

"None of that is true. It is what enables Bermudians to get the education they want and the trips they can afford the life that they live is all driven by the money generated by international business.

"It is not going to be good enough for Bermuda to say 'oops, we should have done that differently', if international business starts to leave our shores. Bermudians would be living on about 20 percent of what they are now living on.

"We would have real problems economically and social."

Some may be tempted to review the recession as taking some heat out of an over-heated economy, perhaps helping to lower extortionate rents.

But Mr. Law said: "Economies are either growing or shrinking, I think there is no such thing as level economy. So unless we are growing we are going down hill. It's just a comfortable excuse to say this is beneficial.

"Maybe rents are coming down with decreased demand."

A Bermudian homeowner who is reliant on rent from a side apartment to pay a mortgage is going to suffer as rents fall some are getting the message.

"A lot of Bermudians know someone who has been affected by the situation so far," he added.

He said beyond the headlines about job losses at such places as XL and Butterfield Fulcrum, there was an untold story of jobs simply not being filled when staffed moved on.

"There are jobs going by attrition and work permits not being renewed.

"It is a significant indicator in our economy and there is certainly some lag time before Bermudians feel the effects."