The United Bermuda Party's defecting MPs won't be Bermuda's third party for long — because their squabbling old party is self-destructing, says pundit Charles Jeffers.

Mr. Jeffers believes people are so fed up with the two traditional parties that Shawn Crockwell, Donte Hunt and Mark Pettingill can succeed where his National Liberal Party failed in the 1980s and make themselves a genuine force at election time.

He said the new party would be able to claim votes from people at either end of the political spectrum: disillusioned Progressive Labour Party supporters who would never vote UBP, and UBP supporters who won't vote PLP.

And the UBP — reeling from infighting and a string of resignations at every level of the party — must now choose between dying off slowly or simply disappearing, he said.

Mr. Jeffers said of the UBP: "A lot of the wrangling is coming from within the party. They are in self-destruct mode. Even those who will stay: some out of blind loyalty maybe, others living in eternal hope and others are trying to figure out how they can graciously get off the stage.

"Instead of a rebuilding mode, it's in a destructive mode. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when and how. Do they die off slowly or do they just disappear?

"I believe that the most ardent UBP supporters are losing heart and they are now questioning themselves as to where they want to go. I'm talking to a number of UBP people and I'm getting the impression they are more fed up with the UBP than the PLP."

The UBP's demise began as soon as it lost the 1998 General Election, said Mr. Jeffers. He believes the party clung to power for many years because it convinced the public a PLP Government would be disastrous — and that once that myth was blown away it had no way back.

Internal UBP surveys reportedly show voting patterns, based mainly on race, mean 18 of the House of Assembly's 36 seats are bankers for the PLP, with the UBP extremely unlikely to win more than the 14 it currently holds.

Mr. Jeffers thinks that should tell the UBP its time in its current form is up.

He said of some remaining UBP MPs: "There's a feeling that somehow they are going to be able to get back where they were. But how can you do that? Who are you attracting as voters? They will probably keep Paget East, and Trevor Moniz's seat, although that may be more to do with Trevor than the UBP.

"However, if the new group emerges strong and presenting a new face, it's surprising what voters they can get."

Mr. Jeffers said the defecting MPs can also take heart from the Bahamas, where a third party — formed by a coalition of the Progressive Liberal Party and the mainly white United Bahamian Party — won control of the government in 1992 to end decades of dominance of the Bahamas' version of the PLP and UBP.

Regarding the chances of Bermuda's new party, Mr. Jeffers said: "I believe there are people who are disappointed with their party of choice, PLP or UBP, as it stands now.

"Their choices are to vote for the other party at the other end of the spectrum or grit their teeth and vote for their own party, or not vote at all.

"If the new party can step into the breach then people at either end of the spectrum can move towards the middle."

He said the defectors need to quickly build a cohesive group which can attract young people and get support from the community and financial backing.

"From what I gather that's what seems to be happening — from speaking to other people and speaking to those people themselves," he said.

"It seems as if they have been doing their own walkabouts in their own constituencies.

"My feeling is that if any group or individuals feel they can no longer support the party who elected them, they should resign from the party, sit as independents, then at the next election form a party.

"They should be forming alliances with different parties. They have to be prepared to give their MPs more latitude; doing that they will bring a new style of politics to Bermuda.

"At this stage, they made their point that they resigned from the UBP and are looking for something different. I believe very strongly they will best serve the people who elected them by being as free and independent as they can be during this term.

"I believe the party machinery should be working, with a chairman and branches behind the scenes, so if the Premier calls an election they are ready to go."

The NLP was formed by four expelled PLP MPs in 1984, but collapsed without ever emerging as a contender for power.

Mr. Jeffers said: "The political climate is totally different in Bermuda than the days when some people just thought it was business as usual with the UBP and others wanted to give the PLP a chance.

"Now both parties have had opportunities. If you look at the poll numbers, who is really satisfied in this Country?"