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Opposition questions why Tourism is using smaller sample to gauge visitor spending

The Opposition has questioned why a smaller sample was used to gauge visitor spending which according to the Department of Tourism has soared.

Figures released by the DoT recently showed that visitor spending for the second quarter of this year could be as high as $113 million.

However, Total Research Associates (TRA), the company that made the projection, said the figure should be "noted with caution, given the smaller sample size".

And the UBP spokesman for tourism, Senator Michael Dunkley, also questioned why a smaller sample was taken compared with previous years.

The Department said in a press release: "Bermuda's economy got a significant injection during the second quarter, with visitor expenditure jumping up to $91.2 million to $113.5 million compared to $64.9 million to $84.7 million in 2009.

"The figures were highlighted in the Department of Tourism's Air Arrivals Flash report. And while the figures were based on a slightly smaller sample of visitors, the indicators of the increased expenditure is cause for optimism."

This year 77,512 people flew to the Island during the second quarter and TRA interviewed 281 of them. Last year, 74,985 visitors flew to the Island between April and June. During that period TRA interviewed 669 people.

The TRA report stated: "Total estimated expenditures for quarter two 2010 have rebounded from last year's low, and have returned to levels seen in quarter two 2008. Total expenditures this quarter range from $91.2 million to $113.5 million versus $64.9 million to $84.7 million in Q2 2009. "That said, this change should be noted with caution, given the smaller sample size."

In 2008, 87,455 flew to the Island during the second quarter and spent $115 million. That year the company interviewed approximately 650 people every quarter.

Sen. Dunkley said: "We appreciate TRA's upfront reference to the significantly smaller number of people questioned for this survey.

"Objective treatment of tourism statistics has, in our view, been missing in action for a long time, so this indicates there may be a move toward stabilising the presentation of information on how the industry is performing."

Sen. Dunkley said his party believed tourism statistics have been "massaged" over the past and "in the process, compromising long-term historical comparisons that help us better understand the health of our former number one industry".

"This has been a disservice to Bermuda." He questioned why a smaller sample had been taken and if the company had been instructed to do so.

"The significant difference in sample size makes quarter-to-quarter comparisons less meaningful and also the statistical error for the second quarter 2010 will be appreciably higher than previous years."