Log In

Reset Password

Why did Igor weaken and veer?

This NOAA satellite image taken Saturday, September 18, 2010 at 1:45 PM EDT shows a swirl of clouds in the Atlantic Ocean associated with Hurricane Igor as it moves toward Bermuda as a Category 2 storm. Clouds over southern Texas are associated with areas of rain and thunderstorms, while a line of clouds in the Plains is producing rain and some thunderstorms in Iowa. (AP Photo/Weather Underground)

It was predicted to be "the worst storm we have seen" but ended up being the bullet we dodged — so why did Hurricane Igor decide to go easy on Bermuda?

Anyone whose home suffered a storm surge, roof was smashed by a telephone pole or boat crashed on the rocks may disagree, but Igor didn't do anywhere near the damage many had feared.

On Friday, Bermuda Weather Service director Mark Guishard warned the hurricane would be at or close to a Category 3 storm when it homed in on Bermuda, with gusts of up to 120 knots (138 miles per hour) — every bit as fierce as Fabian.

However, by the morning of the storm, Igor had weakened to a Category 1, and the strongest winds recorded in Bermuda as it passed were gusts of 102 knots (117 mph) at St. David's at 2.50 a.m.

And a late veer to the west on Sunday afternoon also meant Igor didn't hit the Island as full on as expected.

Weathermen had consistently predicted the centre of its eye would pass within 12 nautical miles of the Island, yet Igor's closest point of approach turned out to be 35 nautical miles west of the airport very late on Sunday.

It was still technically a direct hit because the eye was so wide — 50 nautical miles in diameter — meaning some of it passed over the western marine area and possibly also the West End.

Meteorologist Michelle Pitcher of Bermuda Weather Service said Igor was increasingly affected by environmental factors such as wind shear, a phenomenon which changes wind speeds and can create turbulence and thunderstorms.

This hampered its ability to re-energise itself and caused fluctuations in its path.

But Ms Pitcher said this random factor could easily have had the opposite effect and reintensified Igor instead of weakening it — so in this respect Bermuda simply got lucky.

Less fortunate for the Island was the length of time Igor hung around on Sunday night.

"The unusually large size of Igor and the large extent of his wind fields placed us under tropical storm force winds and hurricane force winds for a longer than usual time," said Ms Pitcher. "He also generated very high swell which resulted in damage by battering waves and flooding of low lying areas.

"The prolonged wind times coupled with the swells certainly had the potential to cause greater damage than what may be expected from a Category 1 hurricane."

Ms Pitcher said the Weather Service would compile a report on Igor which will be made available to the public.

This NOAA satellite image taken Sunday, Sept. 19, 2010 at 4:45 a.m. EDT shows a swirl of clouds in the Atlantic Ocean associated with Hurricane Igor as it moves toward Bermuda as a Category 1 storm. At 4 a.m. EDT Sunday Igor was 235 miles South of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Igor is expected to pass over or very close to Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday, officials warned that its pounding rains and driving winds could be deadly. (AP Photo/NOAA)
Image: MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterBig storm: To give an idea of the scale of Hurricane Igor, Bermuda and its relative position in the North Atlantic is superimposed against the storm cloud in this NASA photo taken from high above the Earth.