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Survey – boost in public confidence for economy

Public confidence in the economy is on the rise following a steady decline over the past two years.

A June survey by Total Research Associates placed the Consumer Confidence Index at 76 points a marked increase since the last poll was conducted three months prior.

Set against a 1998 benchmark of 100, the figure shows the degree of optimism residents have for "broad economic conditions and their own household well-being".

"Although confidence levels had dipped slightly for nearly two years, the Bermuda Consumer Confidence Index (BCCI) now stands at 76 points, up 14 points from March 2009, a magnitude of increase not seen in over eight years," said Total Research Associates president and CEO Graham Redford.

The findings contrast with Retail Sales Index figures released by the Department of Statistics on Wednesday.

That report revealed a decline in total retail sales of 5.8 percent, or $5.5 million below the $95.1 million recorded in May, 2008.

More persons also appeared to prefer buying items overseas rather than at home as residents returning to the Island declared $7.3 million in goods purchased an increase of $500,000 or eight percent above the previous year.

Total Research Associates' findings are based on results from its quarterly-conducted Bermuda Omnibus survey. Held between June 4 and June 11, its findings are based on in-depth telephone interviews with a randomly selected sample of 400 residents aged 18 or older. Results are accurate to within plus or minus 4.9 percent in 95 out of 100 samples.

According to this most recent survey, 66 percent of residents have little faith in the economy although more are optimistic about the future than they were earlier in the year, Mr. Redford stated.

"Of note, when asked which issue is the most important facing Bermuda, the economy has dropped off significantly, showing that it is no longer the foremost issue on residents' minds.

"Residents' views of the state of the economy in Bermuda have improved since the first half of the year, however, the majority still believe that the Island's economy is now worse than it was a year ago (66 percent, down 14 points from March 2009)."

Twenty-eight percent of residents, an increase of 13 points, believe the economy is about the same; five percent think the economy is better now than June 2008 identical to public opinion in March.

Mr. Redford continued: "When looking to the future, residents are now more optimistic compared to earlier in the year. Currently three in ten, (29 percent, down 32 points), anticipate that Bermuda's economy will worsen over the coming year, while four in ten, (39 percent, up 17 points), believe the Island's economy will remain the same. More positive than three months ago, three in ten (30 percent, up 16 points) believe the economy will be either somewhat or much better in the next year."

Asked about their outlook for their individual households, most residents were optimistic.

"The vast majority of residents believes that their household economic well-being will be either better (27 percent) or about the same (56 percent) in the next year, although few believe that they are currently better off compared with a year ago," said Mr. Redford.

"Indeed, status quo seems to be the norm with two-thirds of residents stating that their own household is about the same, from an economic point of view, compared with a year ago."