As the United Bermuda Party lines up its candidates for the next General Election, some people might wonder why some of them are even bothering at all.

After all, research has shown 18 of Bermuda's 36 seats are Progressive Labour Party bankers — seemingly meaning half those putting themselves for the UBP right now are on a hiding to nothing.

That study was done before the emergence of the Bermuda Democratic Alliance, which many expect to take yet more votes away from an official Opposition trying to fight back from three successive defeats at the polls.

But according to Opposition deputy leader Trevor Moniz, a shake-up of the Island's electoral boundaries — meaning many residents will soon find themselves switching constituencies — could help break the voting deadlock which has previously condemned the UBP to failure.

Pembroke East Central and Devonshire North Central aren't exactly going to become blue territory overnight, but Mr. Moniz believes just a few little changes here and there could see a shift in the dynamics that have resulted in 22-14 defeats at each of the past two elections.

It gives renewed hope to the likes of Shadow Public Safety Minister Michael Dunkley, who seems sure to run again in Smith's North, where he lost to Government backbencher Patrice Minors in 2007.

"There are important changes afoot, such as the constituency boundaries report which will be tabled," Mr. Moniz told The Royal Gazette yesterday.

"That changes the basic math. If you look at it seat by seat, some of them are more do-able, some are less do-able. But with the BDA as well, we now have two new factors creeping in we have to deal with."

That represents a brighter outlook from Mr. Moniz, who last summer bemoaned how Bermuda's racial voting meant the PLP had 18 safe seats against the UBP's ten, with eight marginals that could go either way. The party won't be able to determine how those figures change until the report is published this summer.

Opposition Leader Kim Swan yesterday repeated his vow that the UBP would put forward 36 strong candidates across the Island — with no hint of any bargaining with the BDA.

"We want to be the Government. You can't be the Government unless you go out there and convince the people that you are the best choice to be the Government," Mr. Swan told this newspaper.

Mr. Swan would not reveal names ahead of his planned roll-out, but Sen. Dunkley says he has been working hard in Smith's North since the last election, and party sources say he's likely to aim once more for an upset in Dame Lois Browne Evans' former patch.

Former MP Erwin Adderley has put himself forward for Pembroke West where, if selected by his branch, he would be up against former UBP man Shawn Crockwell, now of the BDA.

The party is said to be confident of winning back all three seats currently held by BDA members. One insider said Suzann Roberts-Holhouser could be moved to St. George's South to take on Donte Hunt; while chairman Jeff Sousa has openly declared his intention to challenge Mark Pettingill in Warwick West, but is said not yet to have the thumbs up from the branch.

However, sources say the UBP is less certain of winning back the Hamilton West seat held by one-time leader Wayne Furbert, who has taken many of his family and friends with him to the PLP.

Mr. Swan said all nine of the current MPs would stand again at the next election, including stalwart Louise Jackson, who some have said should make way for younger blood.

Another veteran, John Barritt, who has previously said he is considering his position with the party, said yesterday: "I remain with the United Bermuda Party, continuing to work with those who have carried me this far, on what's best for Bermuda. It is my current intention to stand again at the next election."