The United Bermuda Party is closing the gap on the Progressive Labour Party in terms of potential votes, according to an independent survey.

A 'Political Opinions Poll' conducted this week by Research.bm has reported just a three percent margin between the two parties, compared to ten percent in the last quarter.

The telephone poll found the number of registered voters pro-UBP has risen from 29 percent three months ago to 35 percent. Those who say they would vote for the PLP fell by one percent, to 38 percent.

Among the general voting population this decreases the gap between the two parties from ten percent to just three percent.

According to the survey however, racial block voting patterns are still a feature of Bermudian political life. Seventy-nine percent of whites said if an election was held tomorrow they would vote UBP. Among the black population, 57 percent said they would vote PLP.

In the last Research.bm survey in October, 63 percent of whites opted for the UBP, with 60 percent of blacks pro-PLP.

The PLP is gaining in popularity however, among the younger black generation. Three months ago, 45 percent of blacks aged 18-34 would have voted PLP, now that figure is up six percent, at 51 percent.

According to the independent poll, the younger generation as a whole is becoming more politicised, with those unsure of who to vote for down from 33 percent to 18 percent. The number of 18 to 34-year-olds pro-UBP has also risen, from 22 percent to 31 percent.

In terms of gender, the Opposition is gaining in popularity among women, with survey respondents pro-PLP down two percent at 37 percent, and those pro-UBP up from 36 percent three months ago to 42 percent.

The poll reported 28 percent of voters less than a third, approve of Ewart Brown's performance as Premier. Blacks and those over the age of 55 were more likely to approve of Dr. Brown.

Up to 44 percent of those surveyed disapproved of the Premier's performance. Consistent with a similar survey three months ago, but which used a different methodology, whites were more likely to disapprove.

According to figures from the latest survey, 79 percent of white voters disapprove of the Premier, with only eight percent in approval.

Among blacks, 42 percent of voters approve of Dr. Brown as Premier, with 20 percent not in favour.

Asked to rate the PLP's performance since the Party's re-election in December 2007, 28 percent of voters approved, with blacks and those aged 55-64 more likely to endorse the Party.

Up to 35 percent of voters reported disapproval. Whites and younger residents were more likely to disapprove of the PLP's performance. Among 18 to 34-year-olds, 42 percent were not impressed by the PLP's performance, while 20 percent were in favour. Among whites, 68 percent disapproved, with only three percent in support.

Among black voters, just 14 percent disapproved while 43 percent were in favour.

The UBP however, fared even worse. Asked to rate the Party's performance as Opposition, only 19 percent of registered voters approved. Whites and voters over-55 were more likely to endorse the Party.

Up to 36 percent more than a third of registered voters, disapproved of the UBP's performance in Opposition. Voters aged 35-54 were particularly displeased, with 47 percent almost half the voters of this demographic, expressing disapproval.

Among whites, 27 percent were in favour, with 30 percent disapproving of the UBP's performance. Among blacks, only 15 percent expressed approval, with 36 percent not impressed by the Opposition.

Research.bm utilised Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) to interview a representative sample of 405 Bermuda residents aged over-18. The data was weighted to be representative of Bermuda's population on age, education, race and gender. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.9 percent.

How the leaders and deputies polled

Dr. Ewart Brown

Less than a third of voters have a good impression of the Premier.

Ewart Brown's popularity has slipped slightly since the last quarter, from 33 to 29 percent of voters reporting a favourable impression a four percent decline in his approval rating.

While blacks and voters over the age of 55 like him more, overall 47 percent almost half of the electorate, have an unfavourable impression of Dr. Brown.

Among whites, this jumps to 84 percent, with only seven percent having a favourable impression of the Premier. Last quarter, 71 percent of the white voters polled had an unfavourable response.

Dr. Brown's popularity among the black vote however, remains consistent. Almost half 44 percent, are in favour, while 29 percent have an unfavourable impression.

Women were more likely to disapprove of Dr. Brown, with 56 percent not in favour, compared to 38 percent of men. In October, 47 percent of women polled had an unfavourable impression.

The Premier's popularity has also fallen among the young, with 23 percent of 18 to 34-year-olds having a favourable impression in this latest survey, compared to 37 percent in October.

However among the 55 to 64-year-olds Dr. Brown's popularity has increased, from 30 percent three months ago to 44 percent now.

Kim Swan

The approval rating for Kim Swan remains consistent, with 28 percent of voters having a favourable impression of the Opposition Leader.

While this marks a two percent decrease in popularity since October, those polled who reported having an unfavourable impression fell by ten percent, from 33 percent to 23 percent.

However, only eight percent of 18 to 34-year-olds had a good impression, with 23 percent not in favour and 25 percent undecided.

Whites and voters over the age of 55 were more likely to approve of Mr. Swan. Fifty-three percent of 55 to 64-year-olds had a good impression.

Among whites, almost half 49 percent, were in favour, compared to just a fifth 21 percent, of blacks.

Among black voters, 32 percent did not have a good impression of Mr. Swan. However, in the last quarter this figure was 43 percent, suggesting his popularity has picked up slightly in this demographic.

Paula Cox

The Deputy Premier retains her across-the-board popularity, liked by almost two-thirds of registered voters.

Sixty-two percent have a favourable impression of Paula Cox, Finance Minister. Although this marks a drop of 13 percent on the last quarter, she is popular among all demographics with only one in ten voters having an unfavourable impression.

Similar to Premier Ewart Brown's appeal, she is more popular among black voters and those aged 55-64, seventy percent of whom have a good impression.

Forty percent of white voters have a favourable impression of Ms Cox, and this doubles among black voters to eighty percent.

Trevor Moniz

The new Deputy Leader of the Opposition is proving more popular than his predecessor, creating a good impression among a quarter of the voting public.

Twenty-six percent of residents have a favourable impression of Trevor Moniz, compared to just nine percent for former UBP Deputy, Cole Simons.

Whites and registered voters aged 55 and over are more likely to approve of him. Fifty-one percent of voters aged 55-64 and over-65 like Mr. Moniz. This compares to just 15 percent of voters aged 55 to 64 and 18 percent of seniors having a favourable impression of Mr. Simons.

Mr. Moniz's popularity among white voters shows 47 percent in favour, compared to 17 percent for Mr. Simons. Sixteen percent of black voters like him compared to just five percent who had a good impression of his predecessor.