Just one in ten people has a favourable opinion of the United Bermuda Party, according to a survey commissioned by the Progressive Labour Party.

The UBP had a ten percent favourability — with 55 percent of people having an unfavourable opinion — in the poll carried out between September 28 and October 1 by American firm Research 2000.

Meanwhile the PLP's favourability was at 49 percent, while Bermuda's third party — which has still not officially launched and has only given away scant information about its manifesto — scored 26 percent.

The third party did well among whites, with 39 percent in favour, compared to 18 percent of blacks; and among the older generation, with 32 percent of people over 55 in favour, compared to 20 percent of 18- to 34-year-olds.

However, 55 percent of people offered no opinion on them.

The UBP claimed last night that the PLP's poll was paving the way for Premier Ewart Brown to call an election, and attacked the credibility of the survey, which it said had a "self-serving conflict of interest".

The last Royal Gazette-commissioned poll, in late June by Research.bm, did not specifically ask people for favourability ratings on the political parties.

But that poll showed 37 percent of people approved of the PLP's performance since the 2007 General Election, compared to 12 percent approving of the UBP's performance.

Since then, the UBP has lost MPs Shawn Crockwell, Donte Hunt and Mark Pettingill, Senator Michael Fahy, chairman Sean Pitcher and a string of other members from the branches, many complaining about the party's failure to reform.

Meanwhile the three defecting UBP MPs who are forming their own party, all came behind Dr. Brown in the favourability stakes, as did Opposition Leader Kim Swan. Dr. Brown's 43 percent rating compares to 32 percent for Mr. Swan, 27 percent for Mr. Crockwell, and 30 percent each for Mr. Pettingill and Mr. Hunt.

Mr. Swan had the most people against him, with an unfavourability rating of 44 percent, compared to 40 percent for Dr. Brown, 29 percent for Mr. Crockwell, 26 percent for Mr. Hunt and 25 percent for Mr. Pettingill.

All three of the UBP defectors received a lot of "no opinion" responses — 44 percent each for Mr. Crockwell and Mr. Hunt and 45 percent for Mr. Pettingill.

The PLP supplied the above results to this newspaper after we learned the party had commissioned a survey and asked to see the results. It has so far not accepted our request to release full data from all questions carried out in the poll, which was of 603 likely voters and has a margin of error of no more than four percent. Earlier this week, the PLP had claimed its positive results came in spite of this newspaper teaming up with the UBP as a "Combined Opposition".

Yesterday, the UBP put out a statement arguing this newspaper in fact has a "working arrangement" with the PLP.

"The most important thing about the poll is that it is not an independent poll but the product of an organisation that has a vested interest in crafting the most favourable image for itself," said a UBP spokesperson. "It is a PLP poll, paid for by the PLP and put together by the PLP's own service providers. There is a deep, self-serving conflict of interest at its core.

"The poll's findings cannot be seen as reliable in light of their variance with preceding polls over time and the very high percentage of undecideds on a number of questions.

"In addition, we question The Royal Gazette being spoon fed bits of poll information by the PLP over a period of days in a manner designed to secure the PLP favourable headlines — a working arrangement that puts the lie to the PLP's favourite line about the press and the UBP as the 'Combined Opposition'.

"This poll is all about setting the table for an early election.

"The United Bermuda Party cannot afford to be distracted by suspect polls. We will continue to focus on the issues of reform and working diligently to deal with the very real, everyday challenges confronting Bermudians."

A PLP spokesperson said yesterday: "We are pleased that the PLP favourabilities remain high. Voters are judging us on our deeds not on the words of the Opposition. They appreciate programmes like FutureCare, DayCare, free Bermuda College and free public transportation for our students. They see the PLP putting people first and getting the job done. We will work to merit continued support going forward.

"On the other hand, it is obvious that the UBP has lost the confidence of the public. The NewBP is off to a bad start as black voters and young voters are two demographics essential to their success, yet they are already viewed more unfavourable than favourable. This does not augur well for them."

For the third party question, people were asked how favourable their opinion is of "the third party led by former UBP MPs Shawn Crockwell, Mark Pettingill and Donte Hunt".

Mr. Fahy said yesterday: "We are encouraged by the low unfavourability rating of all three MPs who are working diligently to support the new movement for change in the way politics is done in Bermuda. We anticipate that in due course Bermudians will come to understand and support the movement's vision for a better way."

Dr. Brown's press secretary Arnold Minors yesterday said the Premier would not be disclosing the content of tomorrow night's party political broadcast, which some have speculated could be the announcement of a snap election.