Tonight's United Bermuda Party leadership contest looks likely to hinge on the performances of Kim Swan and Bob Richards, according to party sources.

Many within the party say Mr.Richards has the edge if only because of the dismal performance of the UBP since Mr.Swan took over as leader shortly after the 2007 General Election.

The Shadow Finance Minister is said to have shown his plan for reform to all caucus members something one caucus member said Mr.Swan has not done.

Others argue Mr.Swan could cling onto his job because he has the likability factor they believe Mr. Richards lacks.

And the pair's contrasting styles Mr. Swan appealing to the country's grassroots and Mr. Richards with an intellectual and extensive financial background cancel each other out to such a degree many voters could be swung by the way each performs in 15-minute speeches followed by a question-and-answer session at St. Mary's Church in Warwick.

One long-serving UBP member told The Royal Gazette yesterday:"The vote hangs in the balance. A lot will hinge on what each of them is to say: the plan they lay out and the commitment they have to change."

Another veteran member said: "I don't believe that Kim has the support that he's going to need to win it. The buzz around here among the UBP members is that they think that he's had a year and a half and an opportunity to do something, but hasn't done it.

"Kim is a likeable guy but he was way out of his league.

"Bob has at least galvanised a plan and presented his plan of action to bring the party forward. He has shown all of his caucus members his plan, but Kim hasn't.

"A lot of people don't think Bob is a great deal better, but at least he's not been there. It's a bad way for the UBP right now. Even the people we do have don't want to step forward."

Speaking to The Royal Gazette about his canvassing yesterday, Mr. Richards said:"I'm getting positive feedback they are glad to be part of the process. I'm confident. We just have to wait until the people decide.

"I think the need for change is obvious. My whole message is that I'm an agent for change in the party.

"The characterisation by your newspaper and other places that I'm part of a group that was conservative is just wrong."

Asked why people should vote for him over Mr. Swan, he replied:"Kim and I are different people. Clearly I have my skills; he has his. The important thing is what do we offer to the party. It's not about me versus him, it's about the future direction of the UBP.

"It's very important that this is not a battle of Kim Swan versus BobRichards. The two of us are still friends. One of the key things we have to do, we have to have a team. Teamwork is essential, no matter what course the party takes.

"We have to focus on the people's business, what kind of Bermuda the party would like to create when we become the Government."

He added that it would not be "game over" for the defectors who quit the UBP, explaining:"When we go to the House on Friday, we are still going to be there in the House. I think that we still disapprove of the way that the Government is running the country. We have to look at ways we can work together to make ourselves a combined Opposition."

Mr.Swan responded by e-mail only, stating:"I am looking forward to the election for leader it fulfils my promise to our party that I will go to the Central Council for ratification as leader and invite consideration from our wider body once our party constitution was ratified to include the members of the Central Council.

"It is a milestone for our party whose branches have now been given a far greater role in the consideration and election of our party's leaders. This is a huge shift to make our political party become more connected with the communities we hope to serve.

"It is also pleasing that we are settling the leadership issue at this time prior to the reconvening of Parliament as our party can focus on the people's business and rebuilding.

"Respectfully, the determination of my political future as party leader is now in the capable hands of our delegates representing the Central Council. Hence, any further comments are reserved for them."

More than 50 delegates are set to take part in a secret ballot tonight, after the UBP adapted its constitution to give more grassroots people a say in who chooses the leader.

One voter told this newspaper that has opened the door to many people no longer playing an active role in the party to cast their vote.

UBPSenate Leader Michael Dunkley said whatever way the result goes the Opposition should start to rebuild, saying that Mr.Swan had shown he was not afraid of a challenge and that Mr. Richards had been upfront about his desire to take over.