Why the storm might veer away from Island
Bermuda may be spared the brunt of Hurricane Leslie, thanks to an anticipated change in atmospheric conditions.The large, sluggish storm has so far proven difficult to predict, according to Jeff Torgerson of the Bermuda Weather Service.“Luckily for the Island, it looks now that we will miss the worst,” the meteorologist told The Royal Gazette.Leslie’s switch to a more northerly course was projected to take it about 130 miles east-southeast of Bermuda by noon on Sunday.Said Mr Torgerson: “We do expect a trough of low pressure to move off the North American continent, and that will help to accelerate the system northward.“At the same time, upper level high pressure to the east of the storm is expected to drift further eastward, and this in turn will also help to aid the storm in its north and then north-eastward progress.”So-called “pressure patterns” in the upper atmosphere tends to supply the driving mechanism for tropical weather, he added.“Having said that, over the past 24 hours, Leslie has only been moving at one or two mph. That’s been problematic for forecasters to exactly define the track ahead. It has not found that driving mechanism in the atmosphere, so we are relying on our model data to give us a good idea as to when it will speed up.”The hurricane, which yesterday was almost stationary, is projected to speed up after passing the Island.“The exact track could still change, but confidence in our forecast has improved,” Mr Torgerson said. “It’s a very large storm, with an extensive area of influence which will include Bermuda as it passes by. We expect tropical storm force wind conditions from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.“The strongest winds will be storm force winds of 50 knots and gusts of hurricane force as early as Saturday night, and especially around convective bands of showers and thunderstorms, through Sunday morning.”The storm was yesterday described by the National Hurricane Centre as “barely a hurricane”, but Leslie is projected to become a Category Two storm by tomorrow.l Useful websites: www.weather.bm, www.nhc.noaa.gov.