Assuming that Michael Dunkley is confirmed as leader of the United Bermuda Party today, his first task will be to unify his fractured party and he will need to do so quickly as a General Election is now almost certain to be called within the next few months.

This is not an easy task, and it will be made harder as long as he is being sniped at by former party officials and outgoing MPs. He must reach out to those who can be brought back into the fold.

In doing so, Mr. Dunkley will have to define what the UBP stands for and having done so, to determine what polices it should follow.

Historically, the UBP has stood as a party which promotes diversity and a partnership of Bermuda’s races. It has been fiscally prudent and has displayed a social conscience towards those who cannot help themselves through no fault of their own. In terms of opportunity, the UBP has tended to believe that a rising tide will lift all boats, and has rejected direct forms of affirmative action.

If only to ensure that Bermuda has two strong political parties, the UBP needs to put itself forward as the party that can unite the whole Island and to make the case that the best way for the Island to move forward is to ensure that all Bermudians, regardless of race or gender, have equal opportunities to fulfil their potential.

This cannot, of course, be done in isolation, since the UBP must present itself as a viable alternative to the Progressive Labour Party government. At the same time, it is not enough for the UBP to simply be what the PLP is not. It has to have a set of principles and beliefs that stands on its own.

This challenge is especially difficult given The Royal Gazette’s recent polls that suggest that Premier Dr. Ewart Brown has been successful in capturing the support of the middle class and the young.

In truth, this is where elections are won and lost. The United Bermuda Party has surprising support among the poor — households with income below $50,000 a year — and less surprisingly, among the elderly.

But this is not necessarily a winning combination unless it can draw support from the middle classes and the black swing voter, and certainly a higher figure than the ten percent of blacks who said in the last poll that they would vote for the UBP in an election.

In fairness, the PLP’s philosophy is not especially clear either and the most recent poll suggests that while Dr. Brown himself remains popular, those who signal they would vote for the PLP essentially make up the PLP’s base.

So the suggestion that the next election result is a done deal is not accurate. There is still everything to play for.

What is interesting is that Dr. Brown’s government is aggressively going after the middle ground, and is doing so by taking up some extremely conservative positions. For proof of that, one need look no further than its statements on the issue of the Club Med squatters and the closure of the Medical Clinic, in which Dr. Brown has spoken out against welfare dependency and has accused some squatters of essentially being wasteful.

This opens up a gap for the UBP to show that it consists of — at the risk of using an abused phrase — compassionate conservatives.

The question then is whether Mr. Dunkley and his team can show that they can present a viable alternative.

It is important that Mr. Dunkley should show that he is the leader of a team rather than a party of one by working closely with Patricia Gordon Pamplin and the rest of his shadow Cabinet. At the very least, this will set the UBP apart from the PLP, which now more than ever is Dr. Brown’s party.

This is also important because Mr. Dunkley will almost certainly be accused of having been born into privilege, which he was, and to have come from the white establishment which some still see as steering the UBP. He needs to turn his privileged background into an asset rather than an albatross by making the case that he is giving back to the community that has given him so much and that the UBP can create an environment in which all people get the same advantages that he had.

Internally, Mr. Dunkley must bring better organisation to the UBP, and having successfully run and expanded his own business, he should be able to do this. This also requires maintaining a sense of optimism and opportunity within the UBP. The recent divisions within the party show that it was drifting and was not united by a sense of common purpose and this must be restored.