WASHINGTON (Reuters) — US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been charged by the White House to lead a new Arab-Israeli peacemaking initiative but the prospects for a breakthrough seem dimmer than ever.With the Palestinian territories split between Islamist Hamas in Gaza and US-backed Fatah in the West Bank, President George W. Bush’s speech on Monday to revive his vision of a Palestinian state could hardly have come at a tougher time.

“I understand that the (US) president is under pressure to engage but the timing on getting things done right now is pretty grim, especially from the Israeli and the Palestinian side,” said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Coupled with that is fatigue in the Arab world after previous US promises fell flat and a perceived lack of commitment while the White House is consumed by the Iraq war.

“The question that people in the region are going to ask is, is the administration really serious this time?” said former CIA analyst Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy. “The president has a very sceptical audience which is going to wonder whether there is really anything new,” he added.

With less than 18 months left in his administration and under increasing pressure over the failing war in Iraq, one of the most powerful motivators for both Bush and Rice to push on the Arab-Israeli front is their legacy. Bush called for a Middle East peace conference in the autumn to be chaired by Rice but he gave no details where such a meeting might be held or who had agreed to attend and US officials said they were still reaching out to Arab nations. “We are not trying to be too prescriptive about this right now but we just think that at some point it might be appropriate to sit there and take stock of where we are and having people who agree on the foundational principles for peace,” said senior State Department official David Welch.

Saudi Arabia, a key regional player, does not have diplomatic relations with Israel and its presence would be key but Welch did not know yet whether they would attend.

Rice and US Defense Secretary Robert Gates are likely to include Saudi Arabia during a visit to the Middle East in the coming weeks with the goal of boosting support for US efforts in Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. That trip will also involve stops in Jerusalem and Ramallah, which Rice had cancelled this week after Bush directed her to join Gates on a trip at the end of the month that will also likely include Egypt and Jordan.

“I fear we will waste the next few months trying to finagle how to get Arabs to attend a meeting which will be a huge diplomatic mission with very little return,” said Daniel Levy, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation. Bush’s strategy to completely isolate Hamas is unpopular among many Arab nations who say the prospect for meaningful negotiations is diminished as long as a large chunk of the Palestinian population is not represented.

“You can’t base peace and security on a deepening division on the Palestinian side. No one is saying how you can deliver legitimacy to a peace process with the Palestinians divided,” said Levy.

The appointment of Tony Blair as envoy to the quartet of Middle East peacemakers may have given impetus to Bush’s bid to break the Israeli-Palestinian stalemate and some US officials were worried the former British prime minister may try to poach some of Rice’s peacemaking role.

Diplomats have said Blair tried to broaden his current mandate of raising funds for the Palestinians, building their institutions and promoting economic development. “I think there would be many in this administration who would be nervous at subletting the job to Tony Blair and not knowing where he might take it,” said Riedel.

Rice and quartet members Russia, the European Union and the United Nations are meeting Blair in Portugal on Thursday to firm up his role and discuss the new US plans.