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Balance of power tilts towards AFC as Patriots start favourites

NEW YORK (AP) — Peyton Manning v Rex Grossman.That was the quarterback match-up when Indianapolis beat Chicago last February to finally win the Super Bowl. And in many ways, it represents the difference between the AFC (strong) and the NFC (weaker) when the 2007 season starts on September 6.

NEW YORK (AP) — Peyton Manning v Rex Grossman.

That was the quarterback match-up when Indianapolis beat Chicago last February to finally win the Super Bowl. And in many ways, it represents the difference between the AFC (strong) and the NFC (weaker) when the 2007 season starts on September 6.

In fact, that "traditional" Thursday opener — traditional in that it's now in its sixth season — is one of the few games between top teams in the two conferences where the QB match-up is relatively even. It features Drew Brees and New Orleans at Manning and the Colts.

Even Brees is an ex-AFCer, coming over last season from San Diego to lead the Saints to the NFC title game after their miserable 3-13 record in 2005, during which they were made homeless by Hurricane Katrina.

The build-up to the season has been eclipsed by the off-field troubles of Michael Vick, Pacman Jones and others who have fallen afoul of the law and commissioner Roger Goodell's tough disciplinary policies. It has become a preoccupation for almost everyone around the NFL, the commissioner most of all, although he hardly welcomes it.

"I don't think it's overshadowing the season. I think our fans are excited about football," says Goodell, who in his first year as commissioner has become as high-profile as his most famous (and notorious) players. But he acknowledged: "I understand the interest in that story."

Or as Falcons owner Arthur Blank said after Vick, his star quarter-back, pleaded guilty to dogfighting charges: "Most football people I talk to have more important matters in the football world and like to talk about football."

Starting next week, football will take the spotlight. Hopefully. And not only in the United States, but for a week in London, where on October 28 the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins will play the first regular-season game in Europe, a Dolphins home game.

The main story line, at least at the start of the schedule, is the discrepancy between the conferences — although the parity in the NFL and the knowledge that a key injury or two can completely dismantle a team's hopes often make story lines irrelevant by Week 2 or 3.

Still, the inequality is evident by the fact the defending champions Colts are rated no better than third in the AFC behind New England and San Diego in most preseason forecasts. Add in Baltimore and the conference might have four teams better than anyone in the NFC, including the defending conference champion Bears.

Chicago gave a decent account of themselves in a 29-17 loss to the Colts in the Super Bowl. But until Grossman (or Brian Griese) establishes himself as a Super-Bowl calibre quarterback, the Bears will be a question mark.

Other than Brees, the top QBs in the league are in the AFC, starting with Manning and New England's Tom Brady and Cincinnati's Carson Palmer. Plus youngsters Philip Rivers of San Diego and Ben Roethlisberger of Pittsburgh. One AFC youngster who won't be there to start the season: JaMarcus Russell of Oakland, the first overall pick in the draft, who has been a summer-long holdout, ruining any plans new, 32-year-old coach Lane Kiffin had for starting him.

The NFC's QBs are more iffy. The best besides Brees, Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb, showed signs in an exhibition game last week of problems with a knee on which he underwent surgery eight months ago.

Of course, there's 37-year-old Brett Favre in Green Bay, who may be in his final season and, coming off a bounce-back year, is six touchdown passes short of Dan Marino's career mark. Beyond him are a lot of unknown quantities.

That includes the Giants' Eli Manning, Peyton's brother, who has looked good in preseason and gained leadership points by taking on his retired team-mate, Tiki Barber after Barber suggested on NBC that Manning wasn't much of a leader. It also includes two other improving youngsters who, like Eli Manning, were high draft picks: San Francisco's Alex Smith and Arizona's Matt Leinart. Plus Tony Romo, who became Dallas' starter in the sixth game last year, started fast, but finished slowly.

There's no surprise who are the favourites: New England, winner of three of four Super Bowls between the 2001-2004 seasons.

Despite no wide receivers of much merit and a banged-up secondary, the Brady-led Patriots got to the AFC championship game last season by upsetting San Diego, and led the Colts 21-3 in Indianapolis before finally losing 38-34 for the AFC crown. In the offseason, the Pats added linebacker Adalius Thomas, coach Bill Belichick's kind of versatile player, plus the wideouts they desperately needed: Donte' Stallworth, Wes Welker and the former megastar, Randy Moss.

While Moss is the most intriguing, he's been hurt most of camp and may have lost some of his most electrifying skills. Indeed, the multipurpose Welker is a Belichick favourite because he gets open and does everything, including kicking extra points and a field goal for Miami in a 2004 game in Foxborough that seems to have endeared him forever to New England's coach.

The other two principal AFC contenders each have bigger questions.

For San Diego, who had the conference's best record last season at 14-2, it's a coaching change — Norv Turner for Marty Schottenheimer. The Chargers also lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs: Wade Phillips (defence) to Dallas and Cam Cameron (offence) to Miami.

Turner is one of the game's best offensive minds, and as coordinator in San Francisco last year, he turned around Smith after an awful rookie season.

But he was 59-83-1 as a head coach in Washington and Oakland. The only way he can satisfy expectations this year is by getting to the Super Bowl.

Turner shrugs that off as an occupational hazard. So when asked what would happen if the team went 11-5 and didn't get to the title game, he replied: "I've been doing it too long and I know that if this football team's 11-5, it's played pretty damn well, and that doesn't mean we're not going to have a better record than that. I understand, but it's so far off, you've got to handle each step at a time."

The players seem to be there for Turner, led by LaDainian Tomlinson, who set a record for touchdowns scored last season and was the NFL's MVP. The offence also includes Rivers, who stood out in his first season as a starter, tight end Antonio Gates, and one of the game's better offensive lines. The defence is led by third-year linebacker Shawne Merriman, who is on his way to becoming an elite playmaker.

The Colts still have Manning, wide receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, and defensive end Dwight Freeney, who signed a new deal this year that makes him the game's highest-paid defensive player. But they lost four starters on defence to free agency or injury, and Manning's health could be endangered by the retirement of left tackle Tarik Glenn. Rookie Tony Ugoh, a second-round choice, is currently his replacement, protecting the quarterback's blind side.

Tony Dungy, the first black coach to win a Super Bowl, has never been afraid to lose defenders, fitting players into his "Tampa Two" defence without losing much.

The Colts should still dominate the South. Tennessee looked like an up-and-coming team last season, but running back Travis Henry was traded to Denver, Jones was suspended and Vince Young, who led a late surge as a rookie, has had his troubles in camp.

Looks like the same theme: AFC all over the NFC.