Final round . . . and everything to play for
Today's final round of matches in the Super Eight stage of the ICC World Cup Qualifiers are the most important in the four-year cycle of Associate cricket.
The top four countries will gain entry to the 2011 World Cup, the top six will gain ODI status for the next four years as well as entry to the 2009-2010 ICC Intercontinental Cup. These six teams will also make up the ICC World Cricket League Division One in 2010.
The top ten teams have already qualifed for the ICC High Performance Programme grant funding in 2009 and 2010 (the Super Eight plus Bermuda and Uganda).
So what is at stake for the eight sides today and what do they need to do?
Ireland – nothing but glory at stake for them against Kenya, although defeat would mean they could still be pipped at the top of the table by Canada, but they are guaranteed to be in the first-second play-off and a place at the 2011 World Cup.
Canada – a win over Netherlands will guarantee them at least second place and World Cup qualification. Such is their Net Run Rate (NRR) that a loss would still see them finish in the top four unless there were some remarkable results elsewhere and they were to lose heavily.
Kenya – it will be interesting to see what the effect of Wednesday's humiliation at the hands of Namibia will have, and from what seemed like a stroll to the World Cup, they now have to beat Ireland to ensure they make it. If they lose, then it is quite likely they will miss out, although their ODI status seems safe barring another catastrophic performance.
Netherlands – a win will almost ensure them a top four finish as Kenya and UAE, the only sides who could overtake them, have considerably inferior NRR. If they lose then they will be left sweating on other results, but they are at least guaranteed ODI status for the next four years.
UAE – the crucial match, against Scotland. If they win, they are guaranteed ODI status, and if one of Netherlands or Kenya lose then it's a World Cup place as well. But so narrow is the margin that if they lose then their NRR is so bad that they are likely to miss out on even ODI status.
Namibia - if they lose to Afghanistan then they miss out altogether. If they win then they need two out of Kenya, Netherlands and UAE to lose to bring it down to NRR for the remaining World Cup place, but ODI status would be assured.
Afghanistan - after a remarkable year, they are within one win of completing the fairytale. A loss to Namibia and it's all over, but a win and, like Nambia, they need two out of Kenya, Netherlands and UAE to lose to bring it down to NRR for a World Cup place. Theirs is not as good as Namibia's, however, and the win will need to be convincing. But the headlines would still be made as they would gain ODI status.
Scotland - the real surprise, and for all the wrong reasons. Such is their NRR that a World Cup place is almost certainly beyond them, but if they beat UAE then they will salvage their ODI status at least. A loss and their dreams of professionalism, not to mention lucrative ODIs against England and other touring sides, will disappear for the next four years. Whatever happens, the inquests are likely to start almost as soon as the players leave the field.
STANDINGS
P W L Pts Net RR
Ireland 6 5 1 10 +0.860
Canada 6 4 2 8 +0.855
Kenya 6 3 3 6 +0.006
Netherlands 6 3 3 6 -0.019
UAE 6 3 3 6 -0.813
Namibia 6 2 4 4 -0.022
Afghanistan 6 2 4 4 -0.316
Scotland 6 2 4 4 -0.576
WEDNESDAY'S RESULTS
Ireland d The Netherlands by 6 wickets
Netherlands 222 all out (50.0 overs); Ireland 226-4 (44.3 overs)
Afghanistan d Scotland by 42 runs
Afghanistan 279 all out (50.0 overs); Scotland 237 all out (47.1 overs)
UAE d Canada by 5 wickets
Canada 194 all out (49.5 overs); UAE 200-5 (31.2 overs)
Namibia d Kenya by 201 runs
Namibia 305 all out (49.5 overs); Kenya 104 all out (30.0 overs)
TODAY'S FIXTURES
Scotland v UAE (Willowmoore Park, Benoni)
Ireland v Kenya (LC de Villiers Oval, Pretoria)
Namibia v Afghanistan (Stan Friedman Oval, Krugersdorp)
Canada v Netherlands (University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg)
SUNDAY'S FIXTURES
Final (Supersport Park, Centurion)
3rd-4th play-off (Senwes Park, Potchefstroom)
5th-6th play-off ( Willowmoore Park, Benoni)
7th-8th play-off (Stan Friedman Oval, Krugersdo