Survey puts OBA ahead by 19 points
The One Bermuda Alliance holds a 19 point lead over the PLP, according to a survey conducted by Total Research Associates.Consistent with other polls, it states that the outcome of today’s general election is in the hands of a significant proportion of voters who are undecided.TRA asked 548 residents who qualified as eligible voters which party they are most likely to vote for in the election.Forty percent said they would likely vote for the Opposition party, compared to 21 percent for the Progressive Labour Party.But a significant proportion (31 percent) of the eligible voters said they were undecided or refuse to say.The margin of error for the survey is 4.2 percent and the results reflect voting intentions across the Island and were not analysed by constituency.The survey was commissioned by Total Research Associates itself as part of its Bermuda Omnibus survey — a syndicated quarterly survey of Bermuda residents — and conducted between November 29 and December 11. About two percent of those surveyed indicated an intent to vote for independent candidates.Among those voters who have made up their minds, nearly two-thirds (63 percent) intend to vote for the OBA, while one-third of voters (33 percent) intend to vote for the PLP.Just six percent of voters said they had no plans to vote — with black voters more likely (nine percent) than white voters (one percent) to state that they will not cast a ballot on election day.Racial divisions are apparent in the survey results with black voters more likely to support the PLP (35 percent) than the OBA (19 percent) which has 75 percent white support.Twenty-one percent of black voters remain undecided, while 14 percent of black voters and 13 percent of white voters refused to say, according to the survey. No white voters said they were not sure how they would vote.Among the decided voters, the survey found that 34 percent of black voters planned to vote OBA, compared to 97 percent of white voters. Support for the PLP was 63 percent among decided black voters and zero percent among white voters who had made up their minds. Three percent of blacks and two percent of whites indicated they would be voting for an independent.Support also varied by parish with voters living in the western parishes of Sandys and Southampton more likely (26 percent) than others to say they will vote PLP.Support for the OBA is highest in Warwick and Paget where 48 percent of eligible voters indicated their vote will go to the Opposition party. But a significant 23 percent of the Warwick and Paget voters said they were undecided and another 12 percent refused to say.Three percent of voters in Hamilton Parish, Smith’s and St George’s indicated they would be voting for an independent, compared to two percent of Pembroke and Devonshire voters and one percent of voters living in Sandys and Southampton.Taking into account only the decided voters, support for independents is strongest among Hamilton Parish, Smith’s and St George’s voters (six percent), followed by Pembroke and Devonshire (three percent) and Sandys and Southampton (three percent).“The election will hinge upon candidates’ response to the current economic situation, as one-half (52 percent) of those polled indicate that the economy is the most important issue in this election,” according to TRA. “In addition, unemployment was highlighted as an important issue (17 percent), along with debt/finances (seven percent), crime/gangs and violence (seven percent), education (three percent) and accountability/integrity/honesty (three percent).”Over the weekend, The One Bermuda Alliance said that a poll it commissioned found it leading the PLP by 17 points.