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New poll: OBA stretches lead to 12 points

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The One Bermuda Alliance has a 12-point lead over the Progressive Labour Party, according to a new poll commissioned by The Royal Gazette.

In the Global Research survey carried out this month, 42 per cent of registered voters said they would support the OBA if a General Election was called, compared to 30 per cent for the PLP.

The remaining 28 per cent refused to back either of the two parties.

It means the OBA now has a bigger lead over the PLP than at any time since its formation in the spring of 2011; in our previous poll in May this year, the OBA was narrowly ahead by 36 to 33.

Performance approval ratings of the party leaders, which assess public perception of how well they are doing their job, show Michael Dunkley enjoying a 28-point lead over Marc Bean.

The Premier's score of 48 per cent, a rise of four points since May, is the highest for a leader of the country since former PLP Premier Paula Cox achieved the same figure in January 2011, shortly after she took the top job.

The Leader of the Opposition's rating of 20 per cent represents a fall of four points since May.

Bob Richards, the Deputy Premier, has a performance approval rating of 28 per cent, unchanged since May; David Burt, the Deputy Leader of the Opposition, has a performance approval rating of 29 per cent, down from 35 per cent in May.Mr Dunkley also comes out on top in the poll's favourability ratings, which assess the popularity of the politicians.

The survey found 53 per cent of voters had a favourable impression of the Premier, up from 48 per cent in May. Mr Dunkley draws his support from 89 per cent of whites and 29 per cent of blacks, and is particularly popular with the older generation, with 66 per cent of people aged over 65 giving him the thumbs up.

Meanwhile, 21 per cent of voters had a favourable impression of Mr Bean, down from 27 per cent in May. The PLP leader's support comes from 35 per cent of blacks and 2 per cent of whites.

Mr Richards has a favourability rating of 36 per cent, up from 32 per cent in May. Mr Burt has a favourability rating of 30 per cent, down from 34 per cent in May.

A breakdown of the overall results by race shows that the OBA is continuing to draw the bulk of its support from whites, and the PLP from blacks — although the OBA has made some inroads into the black vote over the past seven months.

Among whites, 84 per cent said they would vote OBA, up from 77 per cent in May; 2 per cent said they would vote PLP, up from 1 per cent in May.

Among blacks, 49 per cent said they would vote PLP, down from 54 per cent in May; 16 per cent of blacks said they would vote OBA, up from 10 per cent in May.

The OBA continues to prove most popular with seniors, and the PLP with young people. Among over 65s, 51 per cent said they would vote OBA, compared with 31 per cent for the PLP; among the 18 to 34 age group, 34 per cent would vote PLP, compared with 24 per cent for the OBA.

The OBA gets the vote of 43 per cent of women, compared to 28 per cent for the PLP; 41 per cent of men would vote OBA, and 32 per cent PLP.

The telephone poll of 401 registered voters took place between December 8 and 14, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 per cent.

Pulling clear: 42 per cent of registered voters said they would support the OBA if a General Election was called, compared to 30 per cent for the PLP (Graphic by Nikeisha Burrows)
Leading the way: the Premier's score of 48 per cent, a rise of four points since May, is the highest for a leader of the country since former PLP Premier Paula Cox achieved the same figure in January 2011 (Graphic by Nikeisha Burrows)

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Published December 21, 2015 at 8:00 am (Updated December 21, 2015 at 10:28 am)

New poll: OBA stretches lead to 12 points

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