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Poll: OBA edges back into the lead

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Graphic by Byron Muhammad

The One Bermuda Alliance has reclaimed its slight lead over the Progressive Labour Party, according to a new poll commissioned by The Royal Gazette.

The OBA has a 38-35 advantage over the PLP, a swing of six percentage points after the Opposition led by 38-35 last November.

With a margin of error of +/- 5 per cent in the Global Research survey, the race remains extremely tight as Bermuda enters the final few months before the next General Election.

Michael Dunkley, the Premier, retains his position on top of the performance approval ratings, followed in order by PLP leader David Burt, OBA deputy leader Bob Richards and PLP deputy leader Walter Roban.

The OBA has a 24-17 lead in the performance approval ratings, with both men and women and every age group saying they think the ruling party is performing better than the Opposition.

The telephone survey of 401 registered voters took place between February 7 and 9.

For the second consecutive poll, the proportion of people who said they would be absolutely certain to vote at an election has risen: that figure now stands at 68 per cent, up from 61 per cent last September.

A breakdown by race shows no surprises, with 77 per cent of whites saying they would vote OBA, up from 76 per cent, and an unchanged 4 per cent saying they would vote PLP.

Among blacks, an unchanged 55 per cent would vote PLP, and 16 per cent would vote OBA, up by one percentage point.

The OBA continues to hold the male vote, by 43-29, and the PLP still has the female vote, by 41-35.

The OBA scored well in the 18 to 34 age group, with 43 per cent against 31 per cent for the PLP. This represents a sharp improvement for the OBA, which had trailed that group by 41-24 in November.

Mr Dunkley’s performance approval rating is 35 per cent, down from 36 per cent.

He gets support from 58 per cent of whites and 21 per cent of blacks, down seven points and one point respectively.

He is backed by 36 per cent of men and 34 per cent of women, and continues to draw most support from the older generation, with 43 per cent from the 55 to 64 age group and 40 per cent from the over 65s.

Mr Burt has a performance approval rating of 27 per cent, down from 30 per cent, including approval from 10 per cent of whites and 39 per cent of blacks.

Mr Richards, the OBA deputy leader, has an approval rating of 21 per cent, up from 19 per cent.

He is backed by 43 per cent of blacks and 8 per cent of whites.

Mr Roban has an approval rating of 14 per cent, down from 15 per cent.

He is backed by 22 per cent of blacks and 4 per cent of whites.

General favourability ratings show Mr Dunkley on 41 per cent, ahead of Mr Burt (34 per cent), Mr Richards (23 per cent) and Mr Roban (18 per cent).

Graphic by Byron Muhammad