Is now a good time to buy?
As a real estate agent, this is a question I often get asked as there are many potential buyers that are trying to time the bottom of the real estate market in order to get the best possible deal. So is now a good time to buy? It is no secret that real estate values have declined since 2007/08. It has been accurately reported over the last few years that transaction numbers have declined by as much as 75%.The mixed signal has been that while the average price of condos sold has declined the average sale price of stand-alone homes has remained stable.While this may be true, there is a difference between the average price of what has sold (average sales price) and average home values.Whilst the former can be a good indicator of the direction of real estate values in general, it is more an illustration of purchasing trends.It is possible for the two to be moving in opposite directions as was the case in 2010 when the average sale price (of what actually sold) went up slightly while overall property values were declining.Although the average sales price of stand-alone homes has remained relatively stable over the last 4-5 years, both their values and condo values have been in a steady decline since 2007.As has been previously reported those declines have been in the 25 — 30% range, taking the average value back to 2002/03 levels.The state of the economy, tighter restrictions from Bermuda’s lending institutions and a lack of consumer confidence have contributed to the decline in the number of buyers and an increase in inventory which has put downward pressure on property values.Whilst the impact of the first two are obvious, do not discount low consumer confidence because, despite the first two, there are people with the financial means or who have been preapproved by a lending institution, that are simply not buying.They are in a position to move into the market quickly but lack the will to do so, even at current prices.Timing a cyclical bottom of the real estate market is complicated and most people wait too long and miss it.Yes, prices have come down considerably and yes they may continue to go down, but there are great buying opportunities available right now.Our neighbours to the west, USA and Canada, who have the biggest impact on our economy, are both growing economically. Canada barely went into a recession and the US economy has been slowly growing since late 2009.While there are no guarantees, Bermuda has historically followed suit.We will rebound and when we do everyone will know, including all the interested buyers and sellers.Remember, a positive economic climate is good news for those interested in investing in real estate and it is also good news for those selling.By the time positive news reaches the market the bottom has been missed.There is more competition between buyers and optimistic sellers become less negotiable. The best deals have already been snapped up.That’s not to say there won’t be any more good deals but that the best opportunities will, by then, be behind us.The bottom line is that are a lot of great real estate deals available today that might not be there 6 months from now.It’s impossible to predict how much lower, if any, prices will go down, but the current opportunities make a compelling case, for those that are in a position to do so, to buy now.Even a short term continuation of falling values would be more than made up for in the long term upside.So is now a good time to buy — the answer is yes!This week’s column was submitted by Albert Moura of Moura & Associates. He can eb contacted at 535-1453, 236-0737, email albert@mouraandassociates.com.