Leading scientists will discuss catastrophe model approaches to dealing with hurricane risk in a workshop hosted this week by the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS) and the Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI).

The RPI was founded in 1995 by a group of Bermudian insurers and reinsurers and BIOS, and the focus of this week’s event will be the medium-term outlook for the frequency of hurricane landfalls in the RMS v11.0 risk model.

The event is open to only to members of RPI.

The RMS 11 has caused many companies to reassess risk exposures and has been cited by some re/insurance bosses as a factor putting upward pressure on insurance prices.

At the event, which will be staged at BIOS on Wednesday and Thursday, the workshop will feature RMS scientists presenting details on medium-term landfall frequencies in the new RMS v11.0 model.

An invited panel of independent world-class scientists will then have the opportunity to discuss the implications of the RMS approach, with the goal of exploring new avenues for research in RPI2.0-funded research projects.

In a statement, BIOS said that Dr Falk Niehörster, a mathematician and climate modeller, “is tasked with breathing new life into RPI”.

“As the full-time, Bermuda-based project manager of the new and improved RPI, or RPI2.0, Dr Niehörster is committed to rolling out a new business model that more effectively translates science into smarter business decisions for its members,” the statement added.

Dr Niehörster hails from the London School of Economics where he contributed to the Munich Re Project and worked at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment chaired by Lord Nichols Stern, author of the Stern Review on the Economics and Climate Change.

Dr Niehörster said RPI2.0 would continue to fund basic research on the impacts of climate change on catastrophe risk, but it was refocusing its efforts on seasonal to five-year (medium-term) time frames, thereby providing its members with a more useful strategic horizon for re/insurance applications and decision-making processes.

The aim of RPI2.0 is to help establish the RPI as a risk clearing house for the re/insurance industry on the island, as well as to strengthen the Bermuda re/insurance market by showing leadership in science-based catastrophic risk prediction and management.

Dr Niehörster added that RPI2.0 aims to become the independent expert to provide advice for the re/insurance industry on how to use and interpret diverse commercial risk models.

Over the past 16 years, RPI has formed an extensive network of world-renowned climate scientists, including Dr Rick Murnane, the programme manager since 1995. They have used their expertise in areas such as climate change, ocean currents, and ocean-atmosphere interactions to more accurately estimate the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes, including tropical cyclones and hurricanes.

For more information on how to become a member organisation of RPI2.0, the benefits of joining, or for details on this week’s workshop, please contact Dr. Falk Niehörster at falk.niehoerster[AT]bios.edu.