Price increases in the July reinsurance renewal period are likely to be restricted to loss-affected areas and sectors unless there is a further significant insured loss for the industry.A report by rating agency Fitch predicts it would take an insured loss of around $50 billion to reduce capital levels throughout Fitch’s monitored universe of reinsurers to such an extent that they would attempt to increase premium rates across their entire portfolios.The agency noted that a loss of this size would also “be likely to trigger a negative rating outlook for the reinsurance sector as a whole”.Renewals in July are predominantly related to US exposure, but pricing movements are likely to follow the same trends as the April renewals period, which is more focused on Asian markets.Figures from Munich Re this week revealed a 35 percent increase in Japanese earthquake reinsurance prices in April while pricing in other regions and sectors remained relatively flat, limiting the overall increase in prices to around five percent. Other reinsurers and major global reinsurance brokers have reported similar trends.Fitch says it expects to see pricing on US wind-exposed reinsurance programmes rise in the July renewal period, due to near-record tornado-related losses in 2011. Property reinsurance prices, which exclude wind-related damage, are likely to achieve, at best, low single-digit price increases.