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Loss estimates for the war climb above $20 billion

Estimates for ultimate insurance and reinsurance losses for the Russo-Ukraine war are already rising above $20 billion and could become the largest political violence loss in history.

This, from data provider PCS which is part of Verisk Analytics, providing insured loss estimates for ocean marine and offshore energy events.

Artemis reported: “PCS says it currently believes the industry loss will come in between a low-end estimate of $13.05 billion, to more than $23 billion.

“PCS currently has a working estimate of $20.6 billion, based on its analysis of various specialty lines of business.

“Overall, it states that the insurance and reinsurance market loss from the conflict in Ukraine will be the largest political violence loss in history.”

PCS is quoted as saying its aggregate industry-wide insured losses were based on the available market intelligence, although it still is early in the conflict.

PCS said the flow of information is still slow compared to what it will likely be when loss adjusters gain access to affected sites.

“As a result,”, they say, “the conflict in Ukraine has the potential to become the largest industry-wide insured loss, across all classes of business, in history, even exceeding that of the terror attacks of September 11, 2001.”

Artemis said there is an expectation that the ILS market will face losses, with the majority expected to be via retro sidecars, some retro structures that cover specialty lines, as well as some very specific quota shares or private collateralised reinsurance deals that touch on specialty and perhaps specialty property risks.

In the aviation lines of business, PCS believes the insurance industry loss will range from $7 billion to as high as $13 billion, with $10 billion as its current working estimate.

In marine, PCS sees a range of potential sources of loss, from sinkings, to ports and cargo, with the industry loss ranging from $3 billion to $6 billion and a working estimate of $5 billion.

Energy lines of insurance affected could include $1 billion of renewable losses alone, while broader energy exposure is possible from areas like nuclear power and energy infrastructure.

The energy loss estimate range is from $1 billion to $4 billion, with a current working estimate of $2.5 billion.

Property per risk exposure is another area of significant uncertainty, given the level of destruction and the fact it remains an active war zone where loss adjusters cannot assess damage claims.

A low-end of $2 billion for property per risk claims is “a bare-minimum estimate based on specific estimated loss information received so far, and the loss is likely to creep further.

Currently PCS is working off a $3 billion estimate for property per risk, but notes that there is significant uncertainty around the top-end of the range.

Ukrainian servicemen stand next to a tire shop destroyed by an airstrike in Lviv, Ukraine, on Monday. Russian missiles hit the city of Lviv in western Ukraine killing at least six people. (AP Photo/Mykola Tys)

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Published April 19, 2022 at 8:00 am (Updated April 19, 2022 at 8:04 am)

Loss estimates for the war climb above $20 billion

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