Acrisure Re issues qualified storm season prediction
Acrisure Re, the reinsurance division of top-ten global (re)insurance broker and fintech platform Acrisure, has published its 2022 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook report, forecasting an above average hurricane season, but with less activity than the record 2020 and 2021 seasons.
The report said that the recent heightened hurricane activity was at least partly attributed to the current warm phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation which began in 1995.
In spring 2020, the report said, the AMO reached its highest values since 1950, which was followed in 2021 by the third most active year of hurricanes on record with 21 named storms.
This season, however, Acrisure Re Analytics forecasts a cooler Atlantic surface temperature than in 2021 through the key months of the 2022 hurricane season.
Acrisure Re’s outlook report is qualified by the unpredictable nature of weather development. Consequently, the team examined the following key factors to create a qualitative overview of the likely conditions this summer:
The forecast Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature are slightly lower than last year, which lends to a less active hurricane Season than 2021.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is predicted to be a marginally weaker La Nina phase than last year, which will lead to weak vertical wind shear and enhanced hurricane activity.
Negative ENSO conditions are associated with lower landfall rates for gulf clusters in the Acrisure Re forecast model.
Past analogue years of 2006 and 2015 would indicate Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is trending to a positive anomaly. It has been claimed that positive QBO values are associated with more Cape Verde storms forming in the deep tropics.
Conditions in the Sahel region of Africa appear to be very close to average. This means dust is unlikely to play a major role suppressing hurricane activity.
Simon Hedley, CEO of Acrisure Re, said: “The 2022 hurricane outlook indicates an above-average period of storm activity, which will mean guarding against loss of life and property damage.
“Acrisure Re’s analytical capabilities and intellectual reach allow us to remain committed to providing sustained market-leading modelling and research regarding the upcoming hurricane seasons.
“These methodological considerations will be of heightened importance given the impact of storm devastation in 2021. We will continue to provide updates as the season progresses.”
Ming Li, Global Head of Catastrophe Modelling, Acrisure Re, said: “Our 2022 hurricane outlook report reflects a consultative and collaborative approach to gain a deep understanding of the potential for catastrophic risks this summer and fall. This model enables our analytics team to operate as an extension of our clients’ risk management team and provides the basis for advice year-round.”