A new report by Acrisure Re forecasts above average activity for the upcoming 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, although not quite as extreme as last year.

The statistical and dynamical models, as well as a review of key variables, leave larger uncertainty this year, given no factor will likely dominate the season, with the potential for different variables to compete.

Acrisure Re’s annual Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook is compiled by experts from the company’s analytics and modelling teams. Acrisure Re is the [insurance and] reinsurance division of global fintech company Acrisure.

After an active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spawned five major hurricanes, including the devastating impacts of Hurricanes Helene and Milton to the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic US, the team examined key variables to create a qualitative overview of the likely conditions this summer.

Their findings show:

• Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures are cooler than 2024 in key storm regions, likely reducing activity, but still above average, supporting an above-normal season

• The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is predicted to be neutral implying a likelihood of the hurricane-suppressing wind shear

• Conditions in the Sahel region appear to be close to average, meaning Saharan dust is unlikely to play a major role suppressing hurricane activity

Simon Hedley, CEO, Acrisure Re, said: “The January 2025 renewal season saw US property catastrophe reinsurance rates decline by 5 per cent to 15 per cent on a risk adjusted basis.

“Midyear Florida renewals also saw rates decline even further from last year.

“Looking ahead to the 2026 renewals, much will depend on weather activity. As always, Acrisure Re will be monitoring the tropics and providing real-time updates both before and after any potential events using our suite of tools and analytics.”

Ming Li, partner and global head of catastrophe modelling, Acrisure Re, added: “Current indicators, including above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a projected neutral ENSO phase, point to an average to slightly above-average North Atlantic hurricane season in 2025.

“As these conditions continue to develop, Acrisure Re is closely watching the data to help clients prepare and respond with greater precision and confidence.”