An MS Amlin reinsurance executive has warned that the 2025 hurricane season should act as a cautionary tale.

Although there were fewer storms in the Atlantic this year, there were a record number of Category 5 hurricanes, signalling new climate-driven extremes ahead, said Sam Phibbs, MS Amlin’s head of catastrophe research.

“The total number of named storms and hurricanes fell below both forecasts and the long-term average,” he said. “Yet, 2025 will be remembered for the unprecedented share of storms reaching high intensities.”

That no hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2025 was down to luck rather than any long-term trend, he said.

MS Amlin research indicates insured losses from US hurricanes could rise nearly 50 per cent under a 2C global warming scenario.

“Warmer oceans will also enable storms to maintain their terrifying strength farther north, threatening cities along the upper East Coast — regions historically less exposed and less prepared,” Mr Phibbs said.

Hurricane Melissa in October was one of the most powerful storms recorded, striking Jamaica with devastating force. Sustained winds reached 185mph, making it the joint second strongest hurricane on record.

“Melissa was not an anomaly but a warning of the supercharged storms we are likely to face more often in a warming world,” Mr Phibbs said. “Its rapid intensification — with winds doubling from 68mph to 139mph in a single day — illustrates how warmer oceans are fuelling hurricane strength in the Atlantic basin.”

Mr Phibbs found this trend to be deeply concerning, particularly as rapid intensification remained difficult to forecast, leaving communities with less time to prepare or evacuate.

“This season also saw an extraordinary proportion of storms reach Category 5 status, defined by winds above 157mph,” he said. “A staggering 60 per cent of hurricanes hit the top of the scale — the highest share on record.”

This aligned with projections that climate change is pushing more storms towards extreme intensity and potentially devastating consequences if they make landfall.

The MS Amlin executive said there is a compelling case for stronger building codes across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, bringing standards in line with hurricane-prone states such as Florida and Louisiana.

“Without such measures, the protection gap will widen, leaving more people vulnerable to the catastrophic impact of these storms,” he said. “This season stands as one of the starkest reminders of the risks we now face.”

Florida is projected to see the largest absolute increase, with insured losses rising by 44 per cent, while New York’s insured losses could rise by 64 per cent.

A repeat of the 2022 hurricane season, which cost $62 billion, could exceed $90 billion in insured losses under the warming scenario.

Mr Phibbs’s work, Insured US Hurricane Loss Under a 2°C Warmer Climate, is published in the Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience.