Global insured catastrophe losses could approach $186 billion annually by 2030, creating more demand for risk-transfer products, according to new research from Swiss Re.

The institute estimates that the global natural catastrophe protection gap widened to $424 billion in 2025 from $395 billion a year earlier. The gap is the difference between economic losses and the amount covered by insurance.

While insurance coverage has overall kept pace with growing exposure, the value of homes, businesses and infrastructure at risk is rising faster than the industry's ability to close the gap.

The report suggests the widening gap is being driven primarily by economic growth and the concentration of assets in catastrophe-prone areas rather than by changes in hazard levels alone. Global exposure has increased in line with nominal economic growth, Swiss Re said.

North America is a key example. Swiss Re found that insurance coverage ratios in the region have been relatively stable at around 40 to 42 per cent over the past decade, but the uninsured portion of losses is increasing as populations and property values grow in catastrophe-exposed areas. Rising reconstruction costs have also contributed.

Bermuda is home to many of the world's largest property-catastrophe reinsurers, which provide capital and capacity for hurricanes and earthquakes to severe convective storms. Bermudian-based carriers are expected to absorb close to $10 billion in insured losses from the January 2025 California wildfires, while total catastrophe exposure underwritten from the island exceeds $220 billion globally, according to regulatory and market estimates.

Swiss Re also said that narrowing the protection gap will require more than additional insurance coverage. These could include stronger building standards, flood defences and land-use planning to reduce losses and improve insurability.

Studies cited in the report found that resilience projects frequently generated benefits that exceeded their costs.