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Advance forecast of busy hurricane season

Another advanced forecast has warned that warm waters in the Atlantic could lead to a busy 2021 Hurricane Season.

Researchers at Colorado State University said they anticipate an above-normal season this year with 17 named storms including eight hurricanes – four of which become major hurricanes.

Their advance forecast said: “Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal.

“We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

The forecast added: “As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.

“They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”

AccuWeather recently forecast between 16 and 20 named storms for the coming hurricane season including seven to ten hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced on Friday that it had increased the “average” number of hurricanes in a year.

NOAA updates its “average” every ten years to reflect changing conditions.

The body had used averages based on the period between 1981 to 2010, but starting this year they would use the average from the period between 1991 and 2020.

The move increased the average number of named storms expected in a single season from 12 to 14 and the number of hurricanes from six to seven.

The average number of major hurricanes – storms that reach at least Category 3 strength – remains at three.

The statement said: “The increase in the averages may be attributed to the overall improvement in observing platforms, including NOAA’s fleet of next-generation environmental satellites and continued hurricane reconnaissance.

“It may also be due to the warming ocean and atmosphere which are influenced by climate change.

“The update also reflects a very busy period over the last 30 years, which includes many years of a positive Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, which can increase Atlantic hurricane activity.”

Matt Rosencrans, seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre, added: “NOAA scientists have evaluated the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and determined that it can influence storm intensity.

“Further research is needed to better understand and attribute the impacts of anthropogenic forcings and natural variability on tropical storm activity.”

The Atlantic hurricane season runs form June 1 to November 30, and NOAA will issue its initial season outlook for this year’s season late next month.

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Published April 13, 2021 at 8:05 am (Updated April 13, 2021 at 8:05 am)

Advance forecast of busy hurricane season

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