UK company predicts quieter than average hurricane season
A UK company has predicted a quieter than average hurricane season in 2023 in an early preseason forecast.
Tropical Storm Risk has estimated that the 2023 season would fall about 15 per cent below the 30-year average based on forecasted water temperatures and trade winds with about 13 named storms.
Of those storms, six are expected to reach hurricane strength and three would become major hurricanes.
The TSR forecast predicted that it is likely that warmer than average waters in the Pacific Ocean will strengthen trade winds – a phenomenon known as El Niño – and help to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic.
The report noted that colder that usual waters in the Pacific had led to the opposite effect – known as La Niña – for the past three years, which has contributed to busier than usual seasons.
The report said: “In addition, of the two years since 1950 where three consecutive La Niña conditions occurred during summer and autumn (1954-1956 and 1998-2000), the following Atlantic hurricane season was near or below average.
“Large uncertainties remain in whether El Niño conditions will be present next summer however it is extremely unlikely a fourth consecutive La Niña event will be present.”
The company predicted an Accumulated Cyclone Energy – a metric used to gauge the overall storm activity – of 104 in the 2023 season, which is below the 30-year norm of 122.
The report added that it predicted a 22 per cent probability of a busier than normal season, a 49 per cent chance of a near normal season and a 30 per cent chance of a below normal season.
The researchers however warned that there were “large uncertainties” in their extended outlook given the early date.
Last year, TSR forecast an ACE of 122 with 18 tropical storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
In total, the 2022 hurricane season saw 14 tropical storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes.