Another busy hurricane season expected this year
The 2025 hurricane season is less than two weeks away and forecasters have warned that it could be another busy one.
In its annual preseason forecast, the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that an above average season is expected with conditions in the Atlantic favourable for storm development.
Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service, said at a press conference today: “We are predicting an above average season once again.
“Specifically, there is a 60 per cent chance of an above normal season, a 30 per cent chance of a near normal season and only a 10 per cent chance of a below normal.”
The body forecast between 13 and 19 named storms, including between six and ten that are expected to reach hurricane strength.
Of those, it is expected that between three and five storms will become major hurricanes, reaching at least Category 3 strength.
An average hurricane season includes 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The names of storms for this year’s hurricane season will largely match that of the 2019 season, except that Dorian has been replaced with Dexter.
Dorian was formally retired as a hurricane name after Hurricane Dorian battered the Bahamas as a Category 5 Hurricane in August 2019, causing widespread devastation and numerous deaths.
This year’s full list includes Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.
Any additional storms would have their names selected from a supplemental list.
Mr Graham said the forecast was fuelled by warm sea surface temperatures, an expected lack of wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African monsoon.
“Everything is in place for an above average season,” he said. “No matter the forecast, it only takes one, so we have to be prepared right now.
“There are no lines for supplies today, no lines for gas, no lines for plywood, no lines for water.
“While there are no lines, it is a good time to go out and get your supplies and get your kit and put it together.”
The UK Met Office released its advanced forecast yesterday, predicting an above average season with about 16 named storms.
Of those, the office predicted that nine would reach hurricane strength and four would become major hurricanes of at least Category 3 strength.
The Met Office said in a statement: “There is a signal in our forecast for La Niña to develop during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
“Vertical wind shear is predicted to be near to or lower than normal in most of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.
“Sea surface temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average in most of the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic, although not as high as the exceptional values seen in 2024.
“Whilst these factors would favour tropical storm activity in the North Atlantic, a forecast positive anomaly in surface pressure is not so favourable.
“However, when all factors are considered together the conditions appear to be favourable for most likely above average tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, as seen in the 2025 forecast.”
Last year, the Met Office forecast that the 2024 hurricane season would feature 22 named storms, while the NOAA forecast between 17 and 25 named storms.
By the end of the season, a total of 18 named storms were recorded, including 11 hurricanes, five of which became major hurricanes.
The 2025 hurricane season formally starts on June 1 and ends on November 30, but storms have been known to form before or after that period.
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