Weather forecasters have this month scaled back predictions for the 2025 Hurricane Season because of wind shear in the Caribbean.

While Tropical Storm Risk and Colorado State University continue to anticipate an above-average season, both bodies slightly reduced their predictions.

On July 8, TSR revised its forecast for the season, estimating there would be 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes, three of which would reach at least Category 3 strength.

Before the start of the season, the body had forecast 16 storms, including eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes

“Although there remains uncertainty at this lead time, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be warmer than normal by August to September 2025, and for neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions to be present through summer and autumn 2025,” the latest forecast stated.

“The former factor is expected to have an enhancing influence on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, whereas the latter factor is expected to have a neutral influence.

“The forecast has decreased since the preseason update in late May due to a number of potentially suppressing signals.”

CSU, meanwhile, slightly decreased its forecast for the season on July 9, stating that it expected a “slightly above-normal” season.

The institution forecast 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes, compared with June and April forecasts of 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

“The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear,” the CSU forecast said.

“High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons. However, we also anticipate the tropical Pacific to be characterised by ENSO neutral conditions.

“Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal but not as warm as they were last year at this time.

“A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.”

So far this year the Atlantic has seen three tropical storms, but none has reached hurricane strength.

However, the typical peak of the season has yet to arrive, with the height of hurricane activity in the Atlantic taking place between late August and the end of September.