A weather forecasting firm has predicted that wind shear will offset unusually warm waters to limit storm development in the upcoming hurricane season.

AccuWeather said in its preseason forecast that it expected between 11 and 16 named storms in the coming year.

It predicted that between four and seven of those would reach hurricane strength, including two to four which would reach Category 3 strength.

The forecast is generally at or below to the 30-year historical average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said that warm waters are forecast to be in place during the season, increasing the risk of rapid storm intensification.

He said: “Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer.

“That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms. As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.”

However, the forecast said the return of El Niño conditions would increase wind shear — rapid changes in wind conditions — in the region, disrupting storm development, particularly late in the season.

The company said that there was a 15 per cent chance of a “Super El Niño” in the latter half of the hurricane season, which would result in even lower storm activity in the Atlantic.

The forecast also warned that parts of the Caribbean remained vulnerable as communities rebuild in the wake of the devastating impact of Hurricane Melissa and Cuba faces an energy crisis.

Last March, AccuWeather forecast the 2025 season would feature between 13 and 18 named storms, including between seven and ten hurricanes, of which between three and five would become major hurricanes.

By the end of the season, 13 named storms had been recorded, including five hurricanes, four of which became major hurricanes.

The 2026 hurricane season formally starts on June 1 and concludes on November 30, but hurricanes can form outside of that window.