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Knock on wood: forecaster says 2026 may be hurricane-free

A meteorological company has forecast that 2026 could potentially become the first year without a hurricane in more than a century

AccuWeather said in a statement that strengthening “super El Niño conditions” in the Pacific were suppressing tropical development in the Atlantic as the most typically active period of the season passes.

The statement said: “For the first time ever, AccuWeather is now forecasting the possibility of zero hurricanes forming this season.

“If this were to occur, it would be the first time since 1914.”

So far this year a total of eight topical storms have been recorded. However, seven weakened before reaching hurricane strength.

The remaining storm, Tropical Storm Hannah, is also expected to gradually weaken into a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Alex DaSilva, a lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather, said: “We are witnessing one of the most extraordinary Atlantic hurricane seasons in modern history.

“There is an increasingly likely scenario in which the Atlantic season ends without a single hurricane for the first time in more than a century.

“All of this despite sea surface temperatures being the second-warmest on record for the North Atlantic basin this season.”

The updated AccuWeather forecast predicts between zero and two hurricanes over the course of the season, which ends on November 30, along with between eight and 11 named storms.

It said El Niño conditions typically cause wind shear across the Atlantic, which in turn hinders tropical storm development.

This season, persistent wind shear has been recorded across the main development region, which combined with areas of dry air has disrupted tropical systems before they could strengthen.

Mr DaSilva said that the main development region has also remained largely stable, which has resulted in a less conducive environment for storms.

He added: “While it is still anticipated to be possible that a hurricane develops through the end of the season, a hurricane-free Atlantic season is now a scenario that must be taken seriously.”

Since 1900, there have only been two years in which no hurricanes were recorded: 1907 and 1914.

However, Mr DaSilva noted that the introduction of routine satellite monitoring in 1966 had significantly bolstered the ability of scientists to detect tropical storms and hurricanes.

He said: “Before satellites, tropical cyclones over remote stretches of ocean could easily escape detection if they did not encounter ships, populated islands or land.

“Nevertheless, historical data points to 1914 as the quietest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with only one documented tropical storm and no hurricanes.”

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Published September 30, 2026 at 11:00 am (Updated September 30, 2026 at 9:44 am)

Knock on wood: forecaster says 2026 may be hurricane-free

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